tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13469044900506109522024-03-19T11:23:33.797+08:00台灣能源台灣能源陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.comBlogger928125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-43722738070375354652024-03-11T11:18:00.002+08:002024-03-11T11:18:25.020+08:00減碳?日本聰明,台灣儍<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZNfo17OBxy-FBliBmW6-xvPB7BUfU0lYhpXunsg2WHyTI-1YwweI8Af-u0DHAz7WlUywnsPbOCdpAkmH4GHksAZgDz-lpCK38K54Q-srZ4ltOW85ZTsbuImjtgp4pdOnSJCMUJtbIFSOuE4xGo5d_9RQ9pSq4vcuBU0UBg159scvuJnGjrE4DXZQu7Dw/s2000/japan%20power.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="2000" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZNfo17OBxy-FBliBmW6-xvPB7BUfU0lYhpXunsg2WHyTI-1YwweI8Af-u0DHAz7WlUywnsPbOCdpAkmH4GHksAZgDz-lpCK38K54Q-srZ4ltOW85ZTsbuImjtgp4pdOnSJCMUJtbIFSOuE4xGo5d_9RQ9pSq4vcuBU0UBg159scvuJnGjrE4DXZQu7Dw/w581-h436/japan%20power.jpg" width="581" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">本文發布於奔騰思潮:<span style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif; letter-spacing: 1.6px;">減碳?日本聰明,臺灣儍</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: 1.6px;"><span style="color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif;">https://www.lepenseur.com.tw/article/1668</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">在今日台灣,減碳抗暖已成天條,不但媒體上減碳相關新聞無日無之</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">,甚至</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零排放已正式入法。政府更編列</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">9000</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元預</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">算在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年至</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年推動「淨零轉型」相關計劃,這還不包</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">括私部門數兆元的太陽光電及離岸風電投資。減碳抗暖對台灣將造成</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">極為深遠的影響,本人在「白花九千億,減碳必跳票」</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">文中有詳細說明。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">政府及台灣媒體非常喜歡引用激進減碳的歐盟國家能源轉型政策,但</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">極少報導台灣近鄰,通常政府及媒體最愛參考學習的日本之減碳措施</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">。本文將填補此一空白,希望台灣社會知道日本情況後頭腦可以清醒</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">些。<span></span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">先介紹日本電力公司情況。日本有</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">家地方性電力公司,由北往南</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">分別為北海道、東北、北陸、東京、中部、關西、中國、四國、</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">九州及冲繩。一家全國性電力公司</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">J-Power</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,其前身為電力開</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">發株式會社。一家為東京電力與中部電力合資成立,將兩家公司的火</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">力電廠移往之橫須賀電力公司,總共</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">12</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">家。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">這些日本電力公司均為股票上市的私營企業,反之台電則為國營企業</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">。台電不能與政府有不同意見,但日本與美國的私營電力公司,</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">規劃就較為務實,不必隨著政府天方夜譚的減碳政策起舞,</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">這點非常重要。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">個人之前有多篇文章指出政客們信口雌黃,承諾本身不必負任何責任</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零排放決不可能達成。此一結論並非個人獨得之秘,</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">有實務經驗的能源界人士無人不知。日本政府「順應」</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">世界潮流提出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零排放的承諾,日本電力公司並不買單,</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">各電力公司提出的減碳承諾遠為務實保守。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">碳排完全可以由電力結構計算得知,所以由各電力公司規劃未來之電</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">力結構即知各公司之減碳承諾為何。最主要的發電方式不外乎煤電、</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">氣電、核電及綠電四種,電力結構即為此四大發電之占比。</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">此四種發電方式中,煤電及氣電會排碳,核電與綠電則為無碳能源。</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">要減碳就必須</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">減少</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">前二者之配比,</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">增加</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">後二者的配比。</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">台灣政府規劃是一方面廢除核電,大力增加綠電,另一方面是停建煤</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">電,大力發展綠電。吾人可參考日本電力公司對此四種發電方式之規</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">劃。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">綠電:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">日本各電力公司對綠電並不熱衷,這些電力公司裝置容量占日本</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">70</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,所發電力更高達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">80%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,總火力裝置容量高達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">148GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">但只有</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">綠電,約日本綠電裝置容量</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">各電力公司對新增綠電也很保守,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年全部新增綠電約</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10G</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">W</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,遠低於政府規劃。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">核電:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">日本電力公司主要減碳手段是重啓核電及核電延役。但目前各電力公</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">司希望重啓的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">33</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部核電機組中,只有</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部取得重啓執照。</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">除了沒有核電的冲繩電力公司,其他九家地方電力公及</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">J-</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Power</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">都規劃重啓核電。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">東京電力、東北電力、九州電力、中國電力及</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">J-Power </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">除了寄望核電重啓外,甚至規劃興建新的核能機組。中部電力、関西</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">電力及九州電力也規劃增建小型模組機組</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">SMR</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。各公司規劃</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">204</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">0</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年之核電裝置容量與綠電相同,但因核電容量因數(</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">每年發電時數)為綠電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">6</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍,核電所提供的無碳電力亦為綠電的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">6</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">,核電是各電力公司承諾減碳之真實支柱。但核電是否能如願重啓及</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">新建要克服許多法律及政府政策的挑戰。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">煤電:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">福島核災前煤電及核電原本即為日本基載電力兩大支柱,核災後核電</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">機組全面停機,日本陷於限電危機,煤電對供電益形重要。</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">日本電力公司都更為依賴煤電,不願如其他國家承諾全面禁用煤電日</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">程。日本電力公司都朝向保留煤電但降低煤電碳排方向努力。降低煤</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">電碳排之手段不外乎混燒氨氣及規劃設置碳捕捉及封存</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">設備。</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">但</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">技術仍不具經濟效益,十分依賴尚未成熟的新科技,日本電</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">力公司對增設時程似乎過於樂觀。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">台灣已因</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2018</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年公投結果,不再增建燃煤機組。但日本電力公司</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">不但不願承諾非煤時程,有三家電力公司甚至規劃新建燃煤機組,此</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">三公司包括東京電力與中部電力共同投資之橫須賀電力及中國電力與</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">四國電力。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">氣電</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">福島核災後,日本喪失全部原為基載電力的核電,作為基載電力的煤</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">電原本就全天候運轉,日本只好大量增加進口液化天然氣將原本提供</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">中載電力的燃氣電廠作為全天候提供電力的基載電力。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">但日本各電力公司期待核電全部恢復,提供無碳電力,並未如台灣將</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">降煤增氣作為主要減碳手段,並未規劃增加太多燃氣機組。台灣規劃</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">18</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部大型燃氣機組,日本目前規劃</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">12</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部燃氣機</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">組並且主要還是取代除役的老舊機組。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">由日本各電力公司對綠電、核電、煤電及氣電之規劃即知減碳實為有</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">限,事實也是如此。日本政府宣稱</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年全國碳排將較</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2013</span></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">年減少</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">46%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,電力部門更要減少</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">62%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。與</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年相較,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">30</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年電力部門要減碳</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">44%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。但依電力公司規劃,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年將減</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">碳</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">22%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,只有政府規劃的一半,並且主要還是依賴重啓核電。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">日本電力公司對減碳似乎意態闌珊,根本未將政府</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零排</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">放承諾當一回事,何以至此?如個人於「</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零無望,</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">解讀</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">報告」中指出有實務經驗的能源界人士無人認為</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">年淨零碳排有任何機會達成。不必等到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年方知其必將跳票,</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">再過幾年由</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">IEA2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年階段性目標幾乎都無法達成即知。日本</span><wbr style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></wbr><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">電力公司務實規劃的減碳計劃很值得台灣學習。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-3613698552804286712024-03-01T09:47:00.000+08:002024-03-01T09:47:24.089+08:00本部落格目錄(2024)<p> <span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "dancing script"; font-size: large; font-style: italic;">附上本部落格今年發表文章目錄,方便讀者檢索。</span></p><p><google-sheets-html-origin></google-sheets-html-origin></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" data-sheets-root="1" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; table-layout: fixed; width: 0px;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><colgroup><col width="61"></col><col width="129"></col><col width="417"></col></colgroup><tbody><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"1/8/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1/8/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"減碳與地緣政治的糾葛"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post.html" target="_blank">減碳與地緣政治的糾葛</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"1/23/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1/23/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post_23.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"經濟部電價澄清稿嚴重誤導"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post_23.html" target="_blank">經濟部電價澄清稿嚴重誤導</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">3</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"1/27/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1/27/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/2050-iea.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告 (上)傳統能源篇"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/2050-iea.html" target="_blank">2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告 (上)傳統能源篇</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"1/28/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1/28/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/2050-iea_28.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告(中)新興能源篇"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/2050-iea_28.html" target="_blank">2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告(中)新興能源篇</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"1/29/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">1/29/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/2050-iea_29.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告 (下)虛幻政策篇"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/01/2050-iea_29.html" target="_blank">2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告 (下)虛幻政策篇</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2/1/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2/1/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/02/2050-iea.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/02/2050-iea.html" target="_blank">2050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2/11/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2/11/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/02/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"強推風電產業重創台灣"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/02/blog-post.html" target="_blank">強推風電產業重創台灣</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2/16/2024"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2/16/2024</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/02/blog-post_16.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"綠電占比過半 風光背後的警訊"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2024/02/blog-post_16.html" target="_blank">綠電占比過半 風光背後的警訊</a></td></tr></tbody></table>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-67109507435114249442024-02-16T18:24:00.000+08:002024-02-16T18:24:04.841+08:00綠電占比過半 風光背後的警訊<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKLGI7HjTFckaX9Q7XjtqgNE4cbrBubKDKNy2qY46o0_RF_mF3lqgGfnYfyeku1V8kX-Pqhoc8k-TSCKC2ct0BRraEeh08FZmvha3Z7lhP5-MihXSexLo1OoUbxi1xduW12qmf_Oolw0afc3dY4y8jtJFAKC-aJdPsCIO2pqc5CcIfJ4FCWK0TjQl7yAo/s1280/solar+wind.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKLGI7HjTFckaX9Q7XjtqgNE4cbrBubKDKNy2qY46o0_RF_mF3lqgGfnYfyeku1V8kX-Pqhoc8k-TSCKC2ct0BRraEeh08FZmvha3Z7lhP5-MihXSexLo1OoUbxi1xduW12qmf_Oolw0afc3dY4y8jtJFAKC-aJdPsCIO2pqc5CcIfJ4FCWK0TjQl7yAo/w610-h406/solar+wind.jpg" width="610" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">本文發布於聯合報:</span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 黑體-繁, "Apple LiGothic Medium", PingFang, 微軟正黑體, "Microsoft JhengHei", "WenQuanYi Zen Hei", helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-weight: var(--bold-weight); letter-spacing: 1px;">綠電占比過半 風光背後的警訊</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; letter-spacing: 1px;"><span style="font-family: Noto Sans TC, 黑體-繁, Apple LiGothic Medium, PingFang, 微軟正黑體, Microsoft JhengHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">https://udn.com/news/story/7339/7771736?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">今年大年初二中午台灣風光發電量達到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1,001</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩,突破</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10GW(</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">百萬瓩</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">)</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。當時尖峰用電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">19GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,表示風光滲透率(風電及光電在系統占比)達到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">52%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。經濟部為此發布新聞稿,認為是蔡政府發展綠能的重大成就,大肆宣傳。但本人看到此一新聞其實深感憂慮。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台灣今日不穩定的風電及光電裝置容量不到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">14GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,過年時不穩綠電滲透率已超過</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">50%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。但依蔡政府規劃,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年風光電裝置容量約</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">27GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,屆時過年時不穩定綠電滲透率豈不是接近</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">100%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">?獨立電網的台灣可以接受</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">100%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">不穩定電力嗎?<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br /></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">其實風光占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">50%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">已像在走鋼索,大家是否記得去年過年風光占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">30%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,台電已經呼籲民眾出門拔插頭?夜路走多了總會碰到鬼,風光電占比太高,必然增加台電調度因應不及導至大停電的風險。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">其實真正的挑戰是蔡總統曾宣布</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2026</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年間,每年增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1.5GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">離岸風電,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的太陽光電,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年共增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">35GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">風光電,加上</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年約</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">27GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的風光電,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年風光電共</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">62GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,相當於今日全台的電力總裝置容量。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">依經濟部電力成長率預估,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年平均尖峰用電,夏天約</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">50GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,冬天約</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">36GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,都遠低於上述之綠電裝置容量</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">62GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。當然台灣不可能時時刻刻陽光普照,風力強勁,以</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">70%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">可用率計算,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年午後綠電平均可提供</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">43GW </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">電力。依以上數據,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年夏天及冬天之綠電滲透率將高達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">85%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">及</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">120%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,獨立電網的台灣怎麼可能容納</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">85%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">及</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">120%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的綠電滲透率?必將發生大規模棄電以維持電網穩定。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">要避免棄電的唯一手段就是儲能,但儲能極為昂貴。美國今日電池儲能設備約可儲全美用電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分鐘。德國綠電裝置極多,在本國無法消受時,也並未予以「儲能」而是倒貼電費,以負電價方式輸往鄰國。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">蔡政府今天儲能的妙招是氫能。但要</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">40</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度綠電才能電解</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">公斤氫氣,但以</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">公斤氫氣使用燃料電池只能發</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度的電,轉換效率不到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">50%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。每度綠電平均</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">4</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元,則氫電單單「燃料」成本就是每度</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">今後</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年台灣電費要漲到什麼程度,經濟部不應黑箱作業而應應公開說明,以「安」民心。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br /></span><br /><p></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-75849772176550215532024-02-11T11:51:00.000+08:002024-02-11T11:51:37.087+08:00強推風電產業重創台灣<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYWtfsjXFdlMxXbAEQwH7osTGS8_7dcnw-V2qcCZ1xUTcJ7iPOIREiQmTljMNCcGwehaDu5I5sDM_ueEiU22SoClp5uj7DfPMp0MWS_s7Gwe74TKfV9xbsDlTiam7FXqzpf8pJH71TOXR1v6OXghZ7lLuzT-3E3Aqh5P1n8z1pw-7hjJ5Cqo7aX9JzkZs/s800/Wind%20plant%20tsai.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="417" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYWtfsjXFdlMxXbAEQwH7osTGS8_7dcnw-V2qcCZ1xUTcJ7iPOIREiQmTljMNCcGwehaDu5I5sDM_ueEiU22SoClp5uj7DfPMp0MWS_s7Gwe74TKfV9xbsDlTiam7FXqzpf8pJH71TOXR1v6OXghZ7lLuzT-3E3Aqh5P1n8z1pw-7hjJ5Cqo7aX9JzkZs/w557-h417/Wind%20plant%20tsai.jpg" width="557" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">本文發布於風傳媒:<span style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">強推風電產業重創台灣</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span style="color: #3b3b3b; font-family: Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">https://www.storm.mg/article/5013311</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">上週蔡總統出席了西門子歌美颯風機廠擴建竣工典禮,並發表講話。蔡總統指出該廠完工代表台灣綠能時代又跨進一大步。在她執政八年間,風電產業建廠投資已超過</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">700</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元,提供</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">4</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">千就業機會。蔡總統為何親自出席一個風機廠的竣工典禮?因為此廠代表了蔡總統力推風電產業「開花結果」的功勞,她希望因建立一個新產業而名留青史。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台積電被稱為護國神山,台積電與半導體產業撐起台灣經濟半壁江山。每當人們追溯何人高瞻遠矚創立台灣半導體產業,都定然歸功於蔣經國、孫運</span><span face=""新細明體-ExtB",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體-ExtB;">𣿰</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">等人,孫院長的「來來豆漿宴」更是為人津津樂道。老實說,台灣經濟至今還依賴蔣孫等人的遺澤,一直是蔡總統與民進黨的「心病」。發展新產業,擺脫蔣孫「陰影」也成為蔡總統施政重中之重。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">風電產業及生技產業都是蔡總統鎖定的目標。為了發展生技產業,蔡總統不惜犧牲台灣人生命,拚死阻止郭台銘進口疫苗,以「保護」高端疫苗的過程,大家都還記憶猶新。蔡總統再也不敢提發展高端的「功勞」。但一般人並不了解發展風電產業對台灣造成的重大傷害,所以蔡總統仍將其列為「政績」。在此不妨回顧建立風電產業過程及解釋未來將對台灣造成的災害。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2018</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年針對離岸風電,政府進行了兩次重大標案。第一次標案為遴選案,第二次標案為競價案。兩次標案的每度電價差了不只一倍。因為以高電價與開發商簽訂</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年購電合約,人民將多付出近一兆元電費,監察院為此向經濟部提出糾正案。蔡政府解釋這一兆元差價是為了「國產化」付出的學費,這是為了建立風電產業付出的頭期款。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">這還沒完,為了鼓勵民間企業共襄盛舉,投入風電產業,蔡總統又畫了一個大餅,承諾未來十年每年將增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">150</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩風電(大於核四每部機組裝置容量</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">135</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩),十年要擴建</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1500</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩風電。台灣電源開發計劃一向是由台電考慮各種因素,每年滾動檢討。台電成立</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">70</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年來,有那位總統插手未來十年電力規劃?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">外行人插手果然鋳成大錯,造成風電光電等不穩定電力未來在電網中占比太高。蔡政府只好規劃將過多的綠電以電解水製氫方式儲能,再以氫氣發電,這就是蔡政府規劃未來台灣氫電占比遠高於全球平均的主因。全球各國並未力推氫電是因為氫電極貴,但蔡政府吃定人民不懂,為了風電產業,強推以氫氣儲能發電,一步錯,步步錯。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">強推風電產業對台灣造成的傷害遠遠超過高端弊案。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-9314520649455557112024-02-01T11:39:00.005+08:002024-02-01T11:40:37.042+08:002050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTgqOEAQACpdpgq3uc7BrxDe7njzp9DeLz7G5J8r10zBiJOP6NWgxNTfbKisldLUSF8Xl3L8O35aVoiCJSk9V6MrKiEqth1INwHem7i0L8LLxHfwa-kqZSGHljKmoZpXOkEuJhgkZMuILCkP_h2ThXerajVg_C8MOdN6a4SqCnFuLGutDE0ef67afvJWs/s2160/IEA%202023%20cover.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2160" data-original-width="1620" height="660" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTgqOEAQACpdpgq3uc7BrxDe7njzp9DeLz7G5J8r10zBiJOP6NWgxNTfbKisldLUSF8Xl3L8O35aVoiCJSk9V6MrKiEqth1INwHem7i0L8LLxHfwa-kqZSGHljKmoZpXOkEuJhgkZMuILCkP_h2ThXerajVg_C8MOdN6a4SqCnFuLGutDE0ef67afvJWs/w496-h660/IEA%202023%20cover.PNG" width="496" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">0 </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">緒論</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">本世紀以來全球暖化日趨明顯,氣候變遷成為全球極端関注的議題。因為使用煤炭、石油及天然氣等化石能源造成的碳排是全球暖化主因,如何節能減碳就成為國際共同努力的目標。國際間在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2015</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年通過巴黎協議,目標在本世紀末將溫昇控制在攝氏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif">度,並盡量努力將溫昇控制在攝氏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">1.5</span><span face="新細明體, serif">度。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">要將世紀末溫昇控制在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">1.5</span><span face="新細明體, serif">度,全球就必須在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年達到淨零碳排。但人類經濟活動非常倚賴化石能源,要達到此一目標極為困難。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年在歐洲帶頭下,全球各國紛紛宣示將於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年達到淨零碳目標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年距</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年還有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">30</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年,承諾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">30</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年後的目標意義不大,總要設定一些階段性目標(路徑圖),比如每</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年減碳若干等,並定期檢驗是否達成這些階段性目標,如此才不會到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2049</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2040</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年才忽然發現</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年淨零排放必將跳票。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">國際能源總署(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">)是為經濟合作及發展組織(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">OECD</span><span face="新細明體, serif">)的能源幕僚組織,是國際上最重要的能源智庫,每年都針對全球能源議題出版許多報告,是世界各國制定能源政策時主要參考資料。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2021</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年針對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年淨零排放出版了一本減碳路徑圖,詳細規劃了要達到此一目標,全球每</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年要達成的階段性目標。這本報告出版後洛陽紙貴,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">宣稱該報告是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">有史以來被下載最多的報告。這也不足為奇,因為各國政府雖然都作了各種淨零碳排承諾,但對如何達成此一承諾都毫無頭緒,當然都急於在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">報告獲得靈感及指點。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA </span><span face="新細明體, serif">於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2023</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">9</span><span face="新細明體, serif">月出版了第二版</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年淨零排放路徑圖報告,當然報告決不會承認</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年淨零排放不可能達成,但由該報告內容可明顯得知此一目標達成機率極微。個人將以三篇文章解讀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">報告,解釋何以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年淨零目標達成無望。人類只有面對現實,拋棄幻想,才能為減碳抗暖找到正確道路。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">本系列第一篇文章將檢討傳統化石能源是否能及時退場,第二扁文章將檢討新興無碳能源是否能及時接棒,第三篇文章將檢討充次</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">報告一廂情願之樂觀假設無法成真。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1 </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">傳統能源</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">討論煤炭、石油及天然氣的前景前,應先了解全球能源使用前景。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">報告階段性目標預估</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年全球經濟將較</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2023</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">25%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,但能源使用將減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">10%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">。這種預測有些令人匪夷所思,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">如此預測的基礎在於全球能源使用效率將大幅提升。全球能源密度(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">Energy intensity</span><span face="新細明體, serif">)由目前每年降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">進步為每年降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">4%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,主要依賴汽油車大量更換為能源使用效率較高的電動車。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年距今不過</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">6</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">期望的經濟成長但能源使用減少是否可以落實,吾人可拭目以待。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">預估到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年電力使用成長將高於全部能源使用成長,一方面是因為經濟及人口增長,另一方面則是因為大量使用電動車及電力供暖,這些趨勢都促使電力使用快速增加。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">目前全球電力供應主要仍然依賴化石燃料,旣然未來電力使用快速增加,如何加速電力減碳即為重中之重。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">預期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年,全球化石燃料使用將降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">25%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,未裝設碳捕捉</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之燃煤發電占比更將降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">50%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2040</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年占比更將降為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">0%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,如前所述,這些預期,吾人不妨拭目以待。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">即然化石燃料及燃煤發電將如此快速減少,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">就提出了一些先決條件。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">首先,即然未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之燃煤發電佔比在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">8</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年內要減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">50%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">18</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年內要全部歸零,表示全球一半燃煤機組都將於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">8</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年內除役,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">18</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年內將全數除役。當然全球就無需增建任何未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之燃煤機組。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">但</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA </span><span face="新細明體, serif">指出目前全球仍有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">150GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif">未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif">的燃煤機組正興建中,要知這是極大規模的建設。台灣最大的燃煤發電廠台中電廠曾經名列全球最大燃煤電廠,共有十部每部機裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">55</span><span face="新細明體, serif">萬瓩(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">0.55GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif">)之燃煤機組,全廠裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">5.5GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">150GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif">相當於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">270</span><span face="新細明體, serif">部台中機組及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">27</span><span face="新細明體, serif">座台中發電廠正在興建中。由此可見世界仍然極為依賴燃煤發電。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">目前全球還有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">150GW </span><span face="新細明體, serif">未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之燃煤機組正在興建的事實,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">也無可奈和。但為了全面降低燃煤占比,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">假設明年全球全面禁建未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之燃煤機組,此一假設是否落實倒不必等上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">8</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年,明年即知。個人對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">此一預期不敢過度樂觀。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">除了煤炭之外,油氣是更重要的化石能源,如果未來</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">8</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年全球化石能源使用要降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">25%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">指出新的油礦氣礦當然就不必開發了。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">十分不幸,此一條件不必等到明年,今年就破功了。破功的罪</span><span face="新細明體-ExtB, serif">𣁽</span><span face="新細明體, serif">禍首不是其他國家,正是減碳喊得最大聲的美國。拜登總統在競選時,為穩住美國自由派選票,曾經承諾當選後不會允許石油公司在海域探勘油氣。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">但依媒體報導,拜登違反競選承諾而在今年允許石油公司在墨西哥灣進行三個新油氣探勘專案。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">的要求其實沒錯,快速減碳的條件之一就是電動車快速取代汽油車,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年銷售的新車中,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2/3</span><span face="新細明體, serif">將為電動車。旣然如此,全球汽油消耗量必將大幅降低,因供過於求,化石燃料價格也將崩盤。但事實好像並未依</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">劇本進行,今年電動車銷售量成長率遠低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之預測。石油公司應該也不會拿自己的錢開玩笑,繼續開發「供過於求」的油氣資源。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">許多人並不了解</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年淨零碳排何等艱難。工業、運輸甚至農牧減碳都極為困難,相較之下,電力減碳最為容易。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">報告中明確指出,要達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年淨零排放,先進國家(包括台灣)的電力碳排必需在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年全部歸零,中國電力必須於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2040</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年歸零,其他開發中國家電力則必須在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2045</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年歸零。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">這種苛求也也太過一廂情願。中國固然是全球綠能開發最積極的國家,但並未停止燃煤機組建設,目前全球在建燃煤機組中超過一半是中國所建,在可預見的未來,完全沒有停止興建的計劃。燃煤機組經濟壽命至少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">40</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年,中國要在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2045</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年電力歸零,表示目前興建中的機組運轉年限減半,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">也指出火力機組提前除役是全球減碳最大成本之一,大陸並未承諾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2045</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年電力歸零。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">其實不必捨近求遠,實應先檢視台灣電力「淨零」期程。蔡政府規劃台灣</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2025</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年電力配比為綠電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">20%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,煤電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">30%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,氣電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">50%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,換句話說,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2025</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年火電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">80%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">。蔡政府開發綠能之企圖心極大,規劃在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2026</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年之間,每年增建</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之太陽能發電,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">1.5GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif">之離岸風電。即使在如此有野心的全力開發綠電,蔡政府也只敢承諾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年火電占比降為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">70%</span><span face="新細明體, serif">,台灣有可能在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">5</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年後的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年電力碳排歸零嗎?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">其實台灣也不必自責更無需自卑,絕大多數已開發國家電力都不可能在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年歸零,更不用說全球電力碳排在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2040</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年歸零。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">只是說全球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif">年要達到淨零碳排,碳排最容易歸零的電力必須先行歸零,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif">可设說這些目標必定可以達到。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif">本篇只是簡要討論即知傳統化石能源退場極為困難,下篇將討論新興無碳能源接棒相關議題。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3 </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">新興能源</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">上篇討論了國際能源總署</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA2023</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年出版的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">淨零排放路徑圖中有關傳統能源部分,本篇將檢討該報告中有關新興無碳能源之發展。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中討論的無碳能源包括傳統水力發電及核能發電,當然著墨最多的是新興無碳能源功能較大的太陽能、風能、生質能、氫能等。也略有提及功能有限的地熱及海洋能。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">討論新興能源及科技之未來展望,討論集中於成本,基礎建設及稀有礦物、供應鏈等的挑戰。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告指出無碳電力,包括綠電、核電、水電、氫能及裝置了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">的火電在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年必須提供全球七成電力(較目前倍增)。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">最寄以厚望的新興無碳能源當然是過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年大行其道的太陽能及風能,報導中特別指出過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球太陽能能裝置容量增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍,增加了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1000GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,幾乎相當於歐盟的傳統電力裝置容量,但因太陽能容量因數(每年可發電時數)遠低於傳統電力機組,能提供的電力度數仍然有限。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">對風電的預估較</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2021</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年的預估為低。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">為了達成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放目標,全球再生能源(包括水力)的裝置容量在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年要增加為目前三倍,全球再生能源裝置容量將由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3630GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年增加為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">11000GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,此為是否能達成全球減碳目標最重要的指標。太陽能與風電之裝置容量將分別由目前的每年增建</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">220GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">75GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年增至每年增建</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">820GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">320GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。不說別的,裝置風力及太陽能所需的土地面積就要增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍。風力加上太陽能的供電占比必需由目前的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">12%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年增加為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">40%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">指出電力系統中增加如此大量的不穩定綠電,必將發生大規模棄電。為了避免發生棄電,就要在綠電建設經費之外,另外花費極大經費加速儲能設施(如鋰電池、電解水製氫)及電網建設,當然需求管理及綠電區域平衡也是必須採取的手段。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">新型再生能源在運轉時沒有燃料成本,全部成本就集中於開頭之設置成本,這正是為何全球八成新興能源設置集中於財務能力較強的已開發國家及中國。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告一再呼籲開發中國家應加強此類新興能源建設,但這些國家財政實在難以負擔。在之前之</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">COP</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">氣候峯會,已開發國家</span><span face="新細明體-ExtB, serif" style="color: #222222;">𠄘</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">諾每年提供</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1000</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">億美元給開發中國家進行新能源建設,但實際到位援助遠遠不足。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEC</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">也呼籲已開發國家信守承諾。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">氫能在未來工業及交通減碳將辦演極重要角色,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEC</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告也有所著墨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEC</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">認為氫能發展太過緩慢,至今仍未有成熟具商業規則的氫氣鋼鐵廠。宣布的氫能開發計劃也只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">較為成型。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">預期到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年氫能只不過提供全球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">電力,但全球電力反而有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">20%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">將用於製造綠氫提供工業及交通減碳之用。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鼓吹以綠電電解水製綠氫,但全球各地自然條件不同,綠電成本相差懸殊。以太陽能為例,台灣條件最好的南部每年發電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1200</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">小時,但全球多國光電可發電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3000</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">小時以上,光電價格只有台灣的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1/2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">甚至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1/3</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">建議綠電條件不佳國家不宜自行生產成本昂貴的綠氫,應由綠電條件好的國家進口綠氫,日本規劃將來由澳洲進口綠氫即為一例。麥肯錫與氫理事會預計到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,歐美中自產氫每公斤價格在美金</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">~</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">元,日本則需到美金</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">元。但</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">也指出目前液態氫氣海運技術尚未成熟,全球尚無大型運輸氫氣之船舶。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">與傳統能源不同,綠能是所謂分散式能源,除了發電設備投資外,還要花大筆經費投資電網建設。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">估計,由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,全球每年要新增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">百萬公里的輸配電線路,除天文數字的建設經費外,申請電網許可執照也費時經年。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告指出,依統計,在先進國家取得設立太陽能設備執照費時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">5</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,取得陸域風電執照費時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">9</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,取得離岸風電執照費時約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">9</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年。以往取得電網許可執照也得好幾年,目前為克服民眾反對,時間更為延長。各類綠能建設請照時程對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達成綠電增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍造成極大不確定性。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">對其他新興綠能也有所討論。生資能與地理條件關係重大,目前全球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">80%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">新興生質能使用集中於巴西、印尼、美國及歐盟。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">並不看好地熱發電及海洋能,報告中指出</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球地熱發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.35%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。預計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1.1%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。海洋能發電更微不足道,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球海洋能發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.05%. </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">預計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.16%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中明確指出核能為全球減碳不可或缺,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球核電裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">417GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">9.3%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。預計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年雖然裝置容量增為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">916GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,但因全球用電量倍增,核電發電占比略降為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">7.8%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">新興無碳能源極為依賴一些特定礦產及稀土元素。但這些礦產及生產均集中於少數國家,產量最多的前三名共生產了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">90%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鋰,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">75%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鈷,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">65%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鎳及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">45%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">的銅。中國一國更占了光電、風電及電池近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">8</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">成製造能力。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">以上四種礦產產量均不足以支撐</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中所期望</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年綠能及電動車必須要達到數量。開採新礦更是矌日費時,由規劃到生產通常超過</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年工夫。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">由上篇討論可知傳統化石能源退場不易,由本篇討論也知新興能源所有指標都極難達成,遑論全部都必須達標才能達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年減碳階段性目標。新興能源按時接棒何止困難重重,根本毫無可能。下篇將進一步說明</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中許多一廂情願的假設。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4 </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">虛幻政策</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">前兩篇解釋了依</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告,純粹由傳統能源與新興能源兩個面向即可確認</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放絕無可能。本篇將針對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告政策面的許多過度樂觀的假設,進一步確認</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放目標極為虛幻。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">每年都會針對全球能源議題出版各種不同報告。近年來許多報告都必然與減碳,尤其是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放目標掛勾。但不論何年出版的報告,都會有一個基本假設:報告出版當年的全球碳排將為碳排最高值,之後就會每年下降,直到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達成淨零碳排目標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">但十分不幸,除了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年因新冠肺炎肆虐,該年碳排下降,全球碳排是年年上升,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">不得不年年修正全球碳排峯值。但碳排歸零目標年不變,一年年過去,離目標年的年分是年年縮短,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告也只能坦承:減碳斜率越來越陡峭,每年要減少更多碳排,「達成目標的路徑越來越狹窄」。但還是死鴨子嘴硬,決不肯承認減碳目標根本無法達成。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">是全球最重要的能源智庫,如果</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">都坦承達不成減碳目標,全球豈不是「軍心渙散」?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">全球減碳有一重大矛盾:全球仍有數十億赤貧民眾,這數十億民眾人均能源消耗極低,人均碳排極低。這龐大人口脫貧的先決條件就是增加能源消耗,換句話說就是增加碳排。為了扺消這數十億人在未來幾十年所增加的碳排,先進國家的淨零碳排年分就不能訂於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年而要提前達標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">當然知淨零排放是何等困難,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">也不敢強人所難,也只能假設先進國家提前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">5</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2045</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達到淨零排放。中國是全球最大碳排放國家,近年中國減碳又極為積極,中國之前曾經承諾在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2060</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達到淨零碳排,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">二話不說,假設中國淨零排放提前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">老實說,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年前許多政府一窩蜂竟相承諾在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放表現了政客的拿手把戲,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">30</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年後之事,有任何今天承諾的政客要兌現此支票嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告也指出口頭承諾減碳年份的國家很多,但全球只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">20%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">國家敢將承諾年份入法,但問題是即使入法就一定會達標嗎?台灣不知死活也將其入法,但有幾人相信可以達成?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告也退萬步,不強求全部國家都入法,但檢討絕大多數未將</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年承諾入法國家之能源政策後,得到的結論是「政策無法支持減碳承諾」。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">以中國而言,因中國工業化起步比西方國家晚了近百年,目前大氣層中的人造二氧化碳大多仍是西方先進國家所排放,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年年前中國承諾較西方國家只晚</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年而在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2060</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達成淨零排放已是極為大膽的承諾。今天</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">假設中國提前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達標,中國同意嗎?豈不又是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">一廂情願的假設?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">這還沒完,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告也指出中東及北非等產油國,根本就沒有承諾任何減碳時程,全球人均所得最低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">30%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">的國家,無一提出減碳承諾。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告也深入討論發展中國家減碳議題,因為此方為決定全球減碳成敗重中之重。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">指出數年前全球仍有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">15%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">人口無電可用,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">30%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">人口沒有清潔燃料以供烹飪。近年情況雖有改善,但因俄烏戰爭造成國際燃料價格上漲,全球有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">7500</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">萬人又退回無電可用,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">億人退回沒有清潔燃料烹飪的窘境。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">全球開發中國家脫貧的先決條件就是有充分的能源,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">估計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球經濟規模要較今日倍增,主要成長就在開發中國家。但如何達成這些較今日倍增的經濟均由無碳能源供應即為艱難無比的挑戰。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">今日非洲國家綠能裝置極少,非洲太陽能資源非常豐富,但整個非洲太陽能裝置容量不及荷蘭一國。過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年中國一國增加之綠能裝置容量為全球其他開發中國家加總裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">指出開發中國家對無碳能源的投資要更加「積極」,對綠能的投資要較今日增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">7</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">現實非常殘酷,漸竭性不穩定的綠能無法提供非洲國家經濟發展所需穩定而價廉的電力。以非洲國家及其他開發中國家角度而言,國家經濟發展及人民脫貧遠較減碳來得重要。此外至今開發中國家對全球碳排的「貢獻」仍然極低,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">指出全球最富裕的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">人口碳排占全球碳排的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">50%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,全球最貧困</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">人口占全球碳排</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.2%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">但</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告指出,要達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零碳排目標,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年已開發國家碳排要減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">80%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">而開發中國家碳排也要減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">60%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。已開發國家在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年要達到電力碳排淨零,中國要在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2040</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達到同樣目標而其他開發中國家則要在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2045</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達到電力碳排淨零。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">已開發國家有何道德立場強迫開發中國家犧牲經濟發展跟著已開發國家「共襄盛舉」減碳?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">5 </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">結語</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">諾貝爾經濟獎得主,人稱氣候經濟學之父的耶魯大學教授諾德豪斯(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">Nordhaus </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">)在巴黎協議通過時即指出全球溫升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">度無法避免,即使</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2100</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放都無比困難。今日先進國家提出的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放是極為不負責任,道德上也完全站不住的減碳目標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">減碳抗暖無疑是一個全體人類必須面對的問題,執著於無法達成的目標有害無益。全球應認真思考提出真正可行的減碳策略與時程,台灣也應預作準備,放棄目前花上天文數字經費,亂槍打鳥但註定失敗的政策而思考何為台灣的無悔政策。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-25562308578201113222024-01-29T12:00:00.000+08:002024-01-29T12:00:32.761+08:002050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告 (下)虛幻政策篇<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDQO_SAxMpQkRFHBYBq8nXZrjyWmkjoT_FyC1ZjIGCfIqKy8VjtoM3ndQGj5G5GOkYcQeeT_1AvxfXebE_wViCRBZ-33g21R_tbpe2NvujJjtq8MSZbHRZ_BprvTTpxl-TBxuGUfDaLCH4UyMpFUinEHG0_TvIo-P4_iqFi4fARNTcaQthomRnFNg3NFY/s2160/IEA%202023%20cover.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2160" data-original-width="1620" height="675" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDQO_SAxMpQkRFHBYBq8nXZrjyWmkjoT_FyC1ZjIGCfIqKy8VjtoM3ndQGj5G5GOkYcQeeT_1AvxfXebE_wViCRBZ-33g21R_tbpe2NvujJjtq8MSZbHRZ_BprvTTpxl-TBxuGUfDaLCH4UyMpFUinEHG0_TvIo-P4_iqFi4fARNTcaQthomRnFNg3NFY/w506-h675/IEA%202023%20cover.PNG" width="506" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 15.4px;">本文發布於風傳媒:</span><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">2050年淨零無望─解讀IEA報告 (下)虛幻政策註定失敗</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span style="color: #3b3b3b; font-family: Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">https://www.storm.mg/article/4997099?mode=whole</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">4 </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">虛幻政策</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">前兩篇解釋了依</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告,純粹由傳統能源與新興能源兩個面向即可確認</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年淨零排放絕無可能。本篇將針對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告政策面的許多過度樂觀的假設,進一步確認</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年淨零排放目標極為虛幻。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">每年都會針對全球能源議題出版各種不同報告。近年來許多報告都必然與減碳,尤其是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年淨零排放目標掛勾。但不論何年出版的報告,都會有一個基本假設:報告出版當年的全球碳排將為碳排最高值,之後就會每年下降,直到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年達成淨零碳排目標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">但十分不幸,除了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年因新冠肺炎肆虐,該年碳排下降,全球碳排是年年上升,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">不得不年年修正全球碳排峯值。但碳排歸零目標年不變,一年年過去,離目標年的年分是年年縮短,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告也只能坦承:減碳斜率越來越陡峭,每年要減少更多碳排,「達成目標的路徑越來越狹窄」。但還是死鴨子嘴硬,決不肯承認減碳目標根本無法達成。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">是全球最重要的能源智庫,如果</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">都坦承達不成減碳目標,全球豈不是「軍心渙散」?<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">全球減碳有一重大矛盾:全球仍有數十億赤貧民眾,這數十億民眾人均能源消耗極低,人均碳排極低。這龐大人口脫貧的先決條件就是增加能源消耗,換句話說就是增加碳排。為了扺消這數十億人在未來幾十年所增加的碳排,先進國家的淨零碳排年分就不能訂於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年而要提前達標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">當然知淨零排放是何等困難,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">也不敢強人所難,也只能假設先進國家提前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">5</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2045</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年達到淨零排放。中國是全球最大碳排放國家,近年中國減碳又極為積極,中國之前曾經承諾在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2060</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年達到淨零碳排,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">二話不說,假設中國淨零排放提前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">老實說,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年前許多政府一窩蜂竟相承諾在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年淨零排放表現了政客的拿手把戲,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">30</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年後之事,有任何今天承諾的政客要兌現此支票嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告也指出口頭承諾減碳年份的國家很多,但全球只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">20%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">國家敢將承諾年份入法,但問題是即使入法就一定會達標嗎?台灣不知死活也將其入法,但有幾人相信可以達成?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告也退萬步,不強求全部國家都入法,但檢討絕大多數未將</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年承諾入法國家之能源政策後,得到的結論是「政策無法支持減碳承諾」。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">以中國而言,因中國工業化起步比西方國家晚了近百年,目前大氣層中的人造二氧化碳大多仍是西方先進國家所排放,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2020</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年年前中國承諾較西方國家只晚</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年而在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2060</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年達成淨零排放已是極為大膽的承諾。今天</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">假設中國提前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年達標,中國同意嗎?豈不又是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">一廂情願的假設?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">這還沒完,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告也指出中東及北非等產油國,根本就沒有承諾任何減碳時程,全球人均所得最低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">30%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">的國家,無一提出減碳承諾。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告也深入討論發展中國家減碳議題,因為此方為決定全球減碳成敗重中之重。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">指出數年前全球仍有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">15%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">人口無電可用,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">30%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">人口沒有清潔燃料以供烹飪。近年情況雖有改善,但因俄烏戰爭造成國際燃料價格上漲,全球有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">7500</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">萬人又退回無電可用,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">億人退回沒有清潔燃料烹飪的窘境。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">全球開發中國家脫貧的先決條件就是有充分的能源,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">估計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年全球經濟規模要較今日倍增,主要成長就在開發中國家。但如何達成這些較今日倍增的經濟均由無碳能源供應即為艱難無比的挑戰。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">今日非洲國家綠能裝置極少,非洲太陽能資源非常豐富,但整個非洲太陽能裝置容量不及荷蘭一國。過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年中國一國增加之綠能裝置容量為全球其他開發中國家加總裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">倍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">指出開發中國家對無碳能源的投資要更加「積極」,對綠能的投資要較今日增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">7</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">倍。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">現實非常殘酷,漸竭性不穩定的綠能無法提供非洲國家經濟發展所需穩定而價廉的電力。以非洲國家及其他開發中國家角度而言,國家經濟發展及人民脫貧遠較減碳來得重要。此外至今開發中國家對全球碳排的「貢獻」仍然極低,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">指出全球最富裕的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">人口碳排占全球碳排的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">50%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">,全球最貧困</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">人口占全球碳排</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.2%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">但</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">報告指出,要達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年淨零碳排目標,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年已開發國家碳排要減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">80%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">而開發中國家碳排也要減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">60%</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">。已開發國家在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2035</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年要達到電力碳排淨零,中國要在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2040</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年達到同樣目標而其他開發中國家則要在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2045</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年達到電力碳排淨零。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">已開發國家有何道德立場強迫開發中國家犧牲經濟發展跟著已開發國家「共襄盛舉」減碳?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">5 </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">結語</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">諾貝爾經濟獎得主,人稱氣候經濟學之父的耶魯大學教授諾德豪斯(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">Nordhaus </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">)在巴黎協議通過時即指出全球溫升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">度無法避免,即使</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2100</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年淨零排放都無比困難。今日先進國家提出的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年淨零排放是極為不負責任,道德上也完全站不住的減碳目標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">減碳抗暖無疑是一個全體人類必須面對的問題,執著於無法達成的目標有害無益。全球應認真思考提出真正可行的減碳策略與時程,台灣也應預作準備,放棄目前花上天文數字經費,亂槍打鳥但註定失敗的政策而思考何為台灣的無悔政策。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-4561567325642926732024-01-28T09:29:00.001+08:002024-01-28T09:29:29.670+08:002050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告(中)新興能源篇<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge56YKLNw2D3AnEPArnlPbDjt9eietL7M7HYNuthBo1g_Bj4O_LF7U_EOR-e7WR8ESTvLIyhMjceNlRrZ8F8qjQPimV35Dv9pqQoXwN6JBJmojDDneeSs7_l56bQbSBGc2gAsa0Fjl6_XPLUMJuBJfW4alWFeScucj6fcDUtujZ3XgMPX7ZA9n1EG94lo/s1280/solar+wind.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="389" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge56YKLNw2D3AnEPArnlPbDjt9eietL7M7HYNuthBo1g_Bj4O_LF7U_EOR-e7WR8ESTvLIyhMjceNlRrZ8F8qjQPimV35Dv9pqQoXwN6JBJmojDDneeSs7_l56bQbSBGc2gAsa0Fjl6_XPLUMJuBJfW4alWFeScucj6fcDUtujZ3XgMPX7ZA9n1EG94lo/w584-h389/solar+wind.jpg" width="584" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Roboto;">本文發布於風傳媒:</span><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">2050年淨零無望─解讀IEA報告(中)新興無碳能源接棒無望</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span style="color: #3b3b3b; font-family: Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">https://www.storm.mg/article/4997082?mode=whole</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">3 </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">新興能源</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">上篇討論了國際能源總署</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA2023</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年出版的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">淨零排放路徑圖中有關傳統能源部分,本篇將檢討該報告中有關新興無碳能源之發展。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中討論的無碳能源包括傳統水力發電及核能發電,當然著墨最多的是新興無碳能源功能較大的太陽能、風能、生質能、氫能等。也略有提及功能有限的地熱及海洋能。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">討論新興能源及科技之未來展望,討論集中於成本,基礎建設及稀有礦物、供應鏈等的挑戰。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告指出無碳電力,包括綠電、核電、水電、氫能及裝置了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">CCS</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">的火電在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年必須提供全球七成電力(較目前倍增)。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">最寄以厚望的新興無碳能源當然是過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年大行其道的太陽能及風能,報導中特別指出過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球太陽能能裝置容量增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍,增加了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1000GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,幾乎相當於歐盟的傳統電力裝置容量,但因太陽能容量因數(每年可發電時數)遠低於傳統電力機組,能提供的電力度數仍然有限。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">對風電的預估較</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2021</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年的預估為低。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">為了達成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年淨零排放目標,全球再生能源(包括水力)的裝置容量在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年要增加為目前三倍,全球再生能源裝置容量將由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3630GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年增加為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">11000GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,此為是否能達成全球減碳目標最重要的指標。太陽能與風電之裝置容量將分別由目前的每年增建</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">220GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">75GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年增至每年增建</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">820GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">320GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。不說別的,裝置風力及太陽能所需的土地面積就要增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍。風力加上太陽能的供電占比必需由目前的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">12%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年增加為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">40%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">指出電力系統中增加如此大量的不穩定綠電,必將發生大規模棄電。為了避免發生棄電,就要在綠電建設經費之外,另外花費極大經費加速儲能設施(如鋰電池、電解水製氫)及電網建設,當然需求管理及綠電區域平衡也是必須採取的手段。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">新型再生能源在運轉時沒有燃料成本,全部成本就集中於開頭之設置成本,這正是為何全球八成新興能源設置集中於財務能力較強的已開發國家及中國。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告一再呼籲開發中國家應加強此類新興能源建設,但這些國家財政實在難以負擔。在之前之</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">COP</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">氣候峯會,已開發國家</span><span face="新細明體-ExtB, serif" style="color: #222222;">𠄘</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">諾每年提供</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1000</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">億美元給開發中國家進行新能源建設,但實際到位援助遠遠不足。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEC</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">也呼籲已開發國家信守承諾。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">氫能在未來工業及交通減碳將辦演極重要角色,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEC</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告也有所著墨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEC</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">認為氫能發展太過緩慢,至今仍未有成熟具商業規則的氫氣鋼鐵廠。宣布的氫能開發計劃也只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">較為成型。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">預期到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年氫能只不過提供全球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">電力,但全球電力反而有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">20%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">將用於製造綠氫提供工業及交通減碳之用。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鼓吹以綠電電解水製綠氫,但全球各地自然條件不同,綠電成本相差懸殊。以太陽能為例,台灣條件最好的南部每年發電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1200</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">小時,但全球多國光電可發電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3000</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">小時以上,光電價格只有台灣的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1/2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">甚至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1/3</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">建議綠電條件不佳國家不宜自行生產成本昂貴的綠氫,應由綠電條件好的國家進口綠氫,日本規劃將來由澳洲進口綠氫即為一例。麥肯錫與氫理事會預計到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,歐美中自產氫每公斤價格在美金</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">~</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">元,日本則需到美金</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">4</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">元。但</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">也指出目前液態氫氣海運技術尚未成熟,全球尚無大型運輸氫氣之船舶。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">與傳統能源不同,綠能是所謂分散式能源,除了發電設備投資外,還要花大筆經費投資電網建設。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">估計,由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,全球每年要新增</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">百萬公里的輸配電線路,除天文數字的建設經費外,申請電網許可執照也費時經年。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告指出,依統計,在先進國家取得設立太陽能設備執照費時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">5</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,取得陸域風電執照費時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">9</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年,取得離岸風電執照費時約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">9</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年。以往取得電網許可執照也得好幾年,目前為克服民眾反對,時間更為延長。各類綠能建設請照時程對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年達成綠電增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">3</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">倍造成極大不確定性。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">對其他新興綠能也有所討論。生資能與地理條件關係重大,目前全球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">80%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">新興生質能使用集中於巴西、印尼、美國及歐盟。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">並不看好地熱發電及海洋能,報告中指出</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球地熱發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.35%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。預計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">1.1%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。海洋能發電更微不足道,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球海洋能發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.05%. </span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">預計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">0.16%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中明確指出核能為全球減碳不可或缺,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2022</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年全球核電裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">417GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,發電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">9.3%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。預計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2050</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年雖然裝置容量增為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">916GW</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">,但因全球用電量倍增,核電發電占比略降為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">7.8%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">新興無碳能源極為依賴一些特定礦產及稀土元素。但這些礦產及生產均集中於少數國家,產量最多的前三名共生產了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">90%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鋰,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">75%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鈷,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">65%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">鎳及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">45%</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">的銅。中國一國更占了光電、風電及電池近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">8</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">成製造能力。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">以上四種礦產產量均不足以支撐</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中所期望</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年綠能及電動車必須要達到數量。開採新礦更是矌日費時,由規劃到生產通常超過</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">10</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年工夫。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">由上篇討論可知傳統化石能源退場不易,由本篇討論也知新興能源所有指標都極難達成,遑論全部都必須達標才能達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">2030</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">年減碳階段性目標。新興能源按時接棒何止困難重重,根本毫無可能。下篇將進一步說明</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">IEA</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="color: #222222;">報告中許多一廂情願的假設。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><br /></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-59512594207479459442024-01-27T13:22:00.000+08:002024-01-27T13:22:06.978+08:002050年淨零無望, 解讀IEA報告 (上)傳統能源篇 <p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicDIYG1LRwAF9TygK96U8QXlXXpM1i-YeiK-oX1lIea6Kei-WiNPWeVIPC7MeODUD7WbokxmlVLHDIdAzfy4pGEcD1XsggFTg8-eQY4XHHBqi4aJRWlpyD5L1oAnx3PPI93aAhGqQvsrKYUpcucg3lhtRgzz4Dtdc_V5PTwttIaxYlwNaeAqcJblgSvaQ/s553/TCH%20plant.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="553" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicDIYG1LRwAF9TygK96U8QXlXXpM1i-YeiK-oX1lIea6Kei-WiNPWeVIPC7MeODUD7WbokxmlVLHDIdAzfy4pGEcD1XsggFTg8-eQY4XHHBqi4aJRWlpyD5L1oAnx3PPI93aAhGqQvsrKYUpcucg3lhtRgzz4Dtdc_V5PTwttIaxYlwNaeAqcJblgSvaQ/w627-h392/TCH%20plant.jpg" width="627" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="font-family: Roboto;">本文發布於風傳媒:</span><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">2050年淨零無望─解讀IEA報告 (上)傳統能源退場困難</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span style="color: #3b3b3b; font-family: Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">https://www.storm.mg/article/4997037</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1 </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">緒論</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">本世紀以來全球暖化日趨明顯,氣候變遷成為全球極端関注的議題。因為使用煤炭、石油及天然氣等化石能源造成的碳排是全球暖化主因,如何節能減碳就成為國際共同努力的目標。國際間在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2015</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年通過巴黎協議,目標在本世紀末將溫昇控制在攝氏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">度,並盡量努力將溫昇控制在攝氏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1.5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">度。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">要將世紀末溫昇控制在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1.5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">度,全球就必須在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年達到淨零碳排。但人類經濟活動非常倚賴化石能源,要達到此一目標極為困難。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年在歐洲帶頭下,全球各國紛紛宣示將於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年達到淨零碳目標。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年距</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年還有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">30</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年,承諾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">30</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年後的目標意義不大,總要設定一些階段性目標(路徑圖),比如每</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年減碳若干等,並定期檢驗是否達成這些階段性目標,如此才不會到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2049</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2040</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年才忽然發現</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年淨零排放必將跳票。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">國際能源總署(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">)是為經濟合作及發展組織(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">OECD</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">)的能源幕僚組織,是國際上最重要的能源智庫,每年都針對全球能源議題出版許多報告,是世界各國制定能源政策時主要參考資料。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年針對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年淨零排放出版了一本減碳路徑圖,詳細規劃了要達到此一目標,全球每</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年要達成的階段性目標。這本報告出版後洛陽紙貴,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">宣稱該報告是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">有史以來被下載最多的報告。這也不足為奇,因為各國政府雖然都作了各種淨零碳排承諾,但對如何達成此一承諾都毫無頭緒,當然都急於在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">報告獲得靈感及指點。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">9</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">月出版了第二版</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年淨零排放路徑圖報告,當然報告決不會承認</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年淨零排放不可能達成,但由該報告內容可明顯得知此一目標達成機率極微。個人將以三篇文章解讀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">報告,解釋何以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年淨零目標達成無望。人類只有面對現實,拋棄幻想,才能為減碳抗暖找到正確道路。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">本系列第一篇文章將檢討傳統化石能源是否能及時退場,第二扁文章將檢討新興無碳能源是否能及時接棒,第三篇文章將檢討充次</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">報告一廂情願之樂觀假設無法成真。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2 </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">傳統能源</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">討論煤炭、石油及天然氣的前景前,應先了解全球能源使用前景。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">報告階段性目標預估</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年全球經濟將較</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">25%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,但能源使用將減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">。這種預測有些令人匪夷所思,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">如此預測的基礎在於全球能源使用效率將大幅提升。全球能源密度(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Energy intensity</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">)由目前每年降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">進步為每年降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">4%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,主要依賴汽油車大量更換為能源使用效率較高的電動車。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年距今不過</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">6</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">期望的經濟成長但能源使用減少是否可以落實,吾人可拭目以待。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">預估到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年電力使用成長將高於全部能源使用成長,一方面是因為經濟及人口增長,另一方面則是因為大量使用電動車及電力供暖,這些趨勢都促使電力使用快速增加。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">目前全球電力供應主要仍然依賴化石燃料,旣然未來電力使用快速增加,如何加速電力減碳即為重中之重。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">預期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年,全球化石燃料使用將降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">25%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,未裝設碳捕捉</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之燃煤發電占比更將降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2040</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年占比更將降為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">0%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,如前所述,這些預期,吾人不妨拭目以待。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">即然化石燃料及燃煤發電將如此快速減少,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">就提出了一些先決條件。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">首先,即然未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之燃煤發電佔比在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年內要減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">18</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年內要全部歸零,表示全球一半燃煤機組都將於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年內除役,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">18</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年內將全數除役。當然全球就無需增建任何未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之燃煤機組。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">但</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">指出目前全球仍有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">150GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">的燃煤機組正興建中,要知這是極大規模的建設。台灣最大的燃煤發電廠台中電廠曾經名列全球最大燃煤電廠,共有十部每部機裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">55</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">萬瓩(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">0.55GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">)之燃煤機組,全廠裝置容量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">5.5GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">150GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">相當於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">270</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">部台中機組及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">27</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">座台中發電廠正在興建中。由此可見世界仍然極為依賴燃煤發電。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">目前全球還有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">150GW </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之燃煤機組正在興建的事實,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">也無可奈和。但為了全面降低燃煤占比,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">假設明年全球全面禁建未裝設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之燃煤機組,此一假設是否落實倒不必等上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年,明年即知。個人對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">此一預期不敢過度樂觀。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">除了煤炭之外,油氣是更重要的化石能源,如果未來</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年全球化石能源使用要降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">25%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">指出新的油礦氣礦當然就不必開發了。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">十分不幸,此一條件不必等到明年,今年就破功了。破功的罪</span><span face=""新細明體-ExtB",serif" style="mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體-ExtB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">𣁽</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">禍首不是其他國家,正是減碳喊得最大聲的美國。拜登總統在競選時,為穩住美國自由派選票,曾經承諾當選後不會允許石油公司在海域探勘油氣。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">但依媒體報導,拜登違反競選承諾而在今年允許石油公司在墨西哥灣進行三個新油氣探勘專案。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">的要求其實沒錯,快速減碳的條件之一就是電動車快速取代汽油車,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年銷售的新車中,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2/3</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">將為電動車。旣然如此,全球汽油消耗量必將大幅降低,因供過於求,化石燃料價格也將崩盤。但事實好像並未依</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">劇本進行,今年電動車銷售量成長率遠低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之預測。石油公司應該也不會拿自己的錢開玩笑,繼續開發「供過於求」的油氣資源。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">許多人並不了解</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年淨零碳排何等艱難。工業、運輸甚至農牧減碳都極為困難,相較之下,電力減碳最為容易。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">報告中明確指出,要達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年淨零排放,先進國家(包括台灣)的電力碳排必需在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年全部歸零,中國電力必須於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2040</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年歸零,其他開發中國家電力則必須在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2045</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年歸零。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">這種苛求也也太過一廂情願。中國固然是全球綠能開發最積極的國家,但並未停止燃煤機組建設,目前全球在建燃煤機組中超過一半是中國所建,在可預見的未來,完全沒有停止興建的計劃。燃煤機組經濟壽命至少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">40</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年,中國要在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2045</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年電力歸零,表示目前興建中的機組運轉年限減半,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">也指出火力機組提前除役是全球減碳最大成本之一,大陸並未承諾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2045</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年電力歸零。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">其實不必捨近求遠,實應先檢視台灣電力「淨零」期程。蔡政府規劃台灣</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年電力配比為綠電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,煤電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">30%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,氣電</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,換句話說,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年火電占比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">80%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">。蔡政府開發綠能之企圖心極大,規劃在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2026</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年之間,每年增建</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之太陽能發電,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1.5GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">之離岸風電。即使在如此有野心的全力開發綠電,蔡政府也只敢承諾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年火電占比降為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">70%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">,台灣有可能在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年後的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年電力碳排歸零嗎?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">其實台灣也不必自責更無需自卑,絕大多數已開發國家電力都不可能在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年歸零,更不用說全球電力碳排在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2040</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年歸零。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">只是說全球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">年要達到淨零碳排,碳排最容易歸零的電力必須先行歸零,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto;">可设說這些目標必定可以達到。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span>本篇只是簡要討論即知傳統化石能源退場極為困難,下篇將討論新興無碳能源接棒相關議題。</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Roboto; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-60107984188202879942024-01-23T10:09:00.006+08:002024-01-23T10:12:39.781+08:00經濟部電價澄清稿嚴重誤導<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0WtYiWOJaOOA1020lKL6ZeSCqOAuqCM6gkV6p18LEJQ8Pk-YO-DLInsg1Y6ai2FYRasaO1iG3aKlefWLE4vX6i4N6qf4k41sQz4EUsX_OZWcRp3KvYSL1Gg32GqldOhnw9Ygymbmj1vMOPusbhZ97RbNlciyB9Ls3DoZLafSbPqp4J3CkOdpac-pjm3E/s2160/MOEA%20clarify%201-24.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2160" data-original-width="1620" height="645" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0WtYiWOJaOOA1020lKL6ZeSCqOAuqCM6gkV6p18LEJQ8Pk-YO-DLInsg1Y6ai2FYRasaO1iG3aKlefWLE4vX6i4N6qf4k41sQz4EUsX_OZWcRp3KvYSL1Gg32GqldOhnw9Ygymbmj1vMOPusbhZ97RbNlciyB9Ls3DoZLafSbPqp4J3CkOdpac-pjm3E/w484-h645/MOEA%20clarify%201-24.png" width="484" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">本文發布於聯合報:</span><span face=""Noto Sans TC", 黑體-繁, "Apple LiGothic Medium", PingFang, 微軟正黑體, "Microsoft JhengHei", "WenQuanYi Zen Hei", helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #fafafa; font-weight: var(--bold-weight); letter-spacing: 1px;">綠電無關漲電價?政府欺我無知</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; letter-spacing: 1px;"><span face="Noto Sans TC, 黑體-繁, Apple LiGothic Medium, PingFang, 微軟正黑體, Microsoft JhengHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">https://udn.com/news/story/7339/7726982</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">上週報上有篇討論能源政策的重量級評論,其中說明何以錯誤政策造成電價飛漲,經濟部立即發布新聞稿澄清,誤導程度令人嘆為觀止,本文一一解釋。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">經濟部首先指出去年台電總支出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">兆元,但再生能源購電的支出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">900</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元,佔總支出不到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,意思是說綠電對電價飛漲影響很小。短短一句話就有兩大問題。首先,綠電是為了取代同樣無碳的核電,依台電官網資料,去年購買綠電每度單價約為核電單價</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">3.5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍,表示以綠代核,成本增加約</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">650</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元,絕對不是小數字。其次去年綠電購電支出「只有」</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">900</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元是因為綠電建設落後之故,待</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年綠電占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">達標後,綠電購電支出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2000</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元,屆時價廉核電已全部除役,電價必將再度大漲,苦日子還在後頭。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">經濟部又解釋越來越多的綠電業者開始選擇賣給民間企業,隨著技術成熟,躉購費率逐年下降,業者將陸續轉供綠電給民間企業,就不需台電支出。這段澄清無疑顯示經濟部坦承認綠電很貴,解釋將來業者都是直接賣給民間企業,台電無需購買高價綠電,不會轉嫁到台電電費。不知細節者還真會被這種說法給騙了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">數年前經濟部有兩個千億級離岸風電標案。第一個是遴選案,經濟部訂的每度電價高達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">7.1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元,第二個是競價案,得標電價每度</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2.5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元。台積電向沃旭直接購買的即為台電讓出每度</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2.5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元的標案,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">7.1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元的標案由台電收購並轉嫁民眾。台積電此一全球最大綠電採購案個人曾譏為「攔胡」。其次因技術進步,未來綠電成本有可能下降,但台電之前與綠電業者高價收購固定費率的合約都長達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年。換句話說,之前高貴的綠電民眾支付,以後降價的綠電賣給民營企業。經濟部真的好棒棒。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">澄清稿中也不忘強調台電不漲電費是抑止物價上漲的大功臣,是通膨海嘯的消波塊。怎麼不提為避免台電破產,兩年前經濟部將台電資本額增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1500</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元,並且全部由經濟部增認?另外又將超收稅款中撥出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">500</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元補注台電,減少虧損。但這些錢不都是來自人民繳納的稅金嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">新聞稿中的這些眉眉角角難道經濟部不知道嗎?旣然心知肚明還發布這種新聞稿誤導欺瞞民眾心態極為可議。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">陳立誠</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台灣能源部落格</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-53294795608286726212024-01-08T13:20:00.004+08:002024-01-08T13:20:53.397+08:00減碳與地緣政治的糾葛<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhelCBaEnHCT7i0szeL_QSw5yqs5rYBYbwPKzC3FaWSrdm5EQa3_PB0TK3QvXe__6fSKomvE82clnsvn5iJsL83lNpGXy51gkvb6QQgyHp21eiLkky6Ic5pz73TBT8zCvvJHFJ8AdTNHQ801Yfe2vNqsJKfQt7PTqm95a9zAMRHEqw7zPSO9F7FnObmu7o/s800/China%20Pakistan.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="800" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhelCBaEnHCT7i0szeL_QSw5yqs5rYBYbwPKzC3FaWSrdm5EQa3_PB0TK3QvXe__6fSKomvE82clnsvn5iJsL83lNpGXy51gkvb6QQgyHp21eiLkky6Ic5pz73TBT8zCvvJHFJ8AdTNHQ801Yfe2vNqsJKfQt7PTqm95a9zAMRHEqw7zPSO9F7FnObmu7o/w490-h486/China%20Pakistan.jpg" width="490" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">本文發布於奔騰思潮:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif; letter-spacing: 1.6px;">減碳與地緣政治的糾葛</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: 1.6px;"><span style="color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif;">https://www.lepenseur.com.tw/article/1621</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">能源一向是地緣政治重中之重。二戰時日本偷襲珍珠港主因即為美國對日本實施石油禁運。近數十年美國對中東投注極大心力,也是因為中東是全球「油庫」。兩年前俄烏戰爭及北溪氣管破壞後,造成歐洲中斷由俄國進口廉價石油及天然氣,對歐洲經濟打擊極大,必將重塑俄烏戰後之全球經濟版圖。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但以上事件均與減碳無關,但目前全球瘋狂推動的減碳政策明顯將影響全球能源形勢,對地緣政治之影響為何?<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">減碳對地緣政治最大衝擊是造成開發中國家永難翻身。今日全球溫度較</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">19</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">世紀下半葉增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1.2</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度無寧說是全球先進國家百年來經濟發展所付出的代價。今日先進國家強力推動全球激進減碳,如果真的成功,必將斷送了開發中國家經濟發展及人民脫貧的希望。此為減碳影響最大的地緣政治衝擊。不過個人認為瘋狂減碳目標必將失敗。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;"> IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">為國際能源總署,乃先進</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">OECD</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">國家成立之國際最重要的能源智庫</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #222222;"> </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">指出要達到全球</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零排放,電力淨零為第一要務。全球應立即停止興建碳排最高的燃煤機組,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">不但呼籲全球銀行停止融資煤電建設,也呼籲停止出口燃煤機組。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">建議之兩大手段將導致開發中國家先行停止建設煤電,隨後也無法使用油氣等化石能源。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">西方主要財務機構早已停止煤電融資,歐美日也老早承諾不再出口燃煤機組。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年中國在承諾</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2060</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年達成淨零碳排時,也同時承諾不再出口燃煤機組。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">出版的「非洲能源展望」報告中指出,因為中國不再出口燃煤機組,非洲在目前興建中的燃煤電廠完工後,將不再興建燃煤機組。反之</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">IEA</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">強烈鼓勵非洲國家發展再生能源。無怪乎能源界一直有句極為諷刺的話:「犧牲非洲救地球」,非洲題目太大,本文就此打住。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">本文聚焦於檢驗中國是否信守不再輸出燃煤機組之承諾,並說明中國對巴基斯坦及越南因地緣政治考量,採取不同出口政策。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中國並未立即全面停止燃煤機組出口。首先若在國外的燃煤機組已動工,將會依合約繼續進行。另外如果該燃煤機組是為了提供其他中國出口設施及建設之電力,中國也不會中止配套之燃煤機組出口。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">在此可舉一例:中國與巴基斯坦關係密切,巴基斯坦是一帶一路計劃重要夥伴,中巴經濟走廊是一帶一路的標桿建設。該走廊起點在中國新疆喀什,跨越巴基斯坦全境,終點在巴基斯坦面向阿拉伯海之爪達爾港。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">大型港埠運行需要大量電力,但巴基斯坦嚴重缺電,多年來全國輪流停電,何來多餘電力提供瓜港運作?中國工程人員原先也規劃興建大規模太陽光電設備,希望能提供足夠電力給瓜港運作。但很快即發現綠電根本不可靠,完全無法保證瓜港運作,最後只好興建燃煤機組提供穩定電力。此一情況也符合出口煤電機組配合其他建設的條件,不算違反承諾。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中巴經濟走廊及瓜達爾港具有極為重要的地緣政治地位。麻六甲海峽扼守印度洋連結中國南海咽喉,中國極大比重能源近口及一半國際貿易都經過麻六甲海峽。若中美交惡,美國封鎖該海峽,將給中國造成致命打擊。此即為中國所謂之「麻六甲困境」。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">為降低此一困境之衝擊,中國除了由緬甸鋪設油管進入雲南外,由瓜達爾港修建鐵路運送石油進入新疆也是另一條進口石油路線。在地緣政治及國家安全考量下,無論如何中國都必然會出口燃煤機組給巴基斯坦,減碳考量只能靠邊站。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">減碳對地緣政治的影響,有另外一個例子:越南。中國在南海的九段線與菲律賓與越南造成最大衝突。去年菲律賓允許美國增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">4</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">個軍事基地,近日在仁愛礁又挑起船艦與中國對抗,明顯傾向美國。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但相對而言中國與越南近日在南海相安無事,中共主席習近平上月訪越,受到最高規格的歡迎。與菲律賓不同,越南表現得較為傾向中國。原因何在?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">近幾年美國拉著歐日盟友與中國搞脫勾,除印度外,墨西哥及越南就是產業由中國外移的主要受惠國家。越南近年經濟高速成長,對電力需求也同步成長。越南電力近幾年煤電占比日益增加,近年越南基本依靠加建煤電應付電力成長,目前煤電供應超過越南一半的電力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但越南也感受到國際減碳壓力,近年一方面大力推動再生能源建設,一方面也放緩燃煤機組建設。已開工的煤電繼續進行,但放慢新煤電計劃的腳步。這一方面是自願,但也有很大因素是受迫。原因有二:一為在國際上煤電融資越來越困難,另一方面是中國信守承諾不再出口煤電機組給越南。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">再生能源靠天吃飯,建設再多再生能源也不能保證穩定供電,越南一方面受惠於美國脫勾政策,經濟形勢大好。一方面也因增加綠電建設減少煤電建設,造成嚴重缺電,只好由中國大量購電。越南對中國電力的依賴反而成為中國地緣政治利器。中國極可能嚴守承諾,不出口燃煤機組給越南,利用越南供電困境,牽制越南。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">誰想得到國際減碳目標竟然影響地緣政治?中國繼續向巴基斯坦出口燃煤機組但停止向越南出口,背後有重要地緣政治考量。減碳與地緣政治的糾葛必將在全球各地不斷發生。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-50205970032474815362023-12-31T08:39:00.000+08:002023-12-31T08:39:06.717+08:00本部落格目錄(2023)<p> <span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "dancing script"; font-size: large; font-style: italic;">附上本部落格今年發表文章目錄,方便讀者檢索。</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-3576431004629510269" itemprop="description articleBody" style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 620px;"><div><span style="font-family: "dancing script"; font-size: large; font-style: italic;"><br /></span></div></div><p><google-sheets-html-origin></google-sheets-html-origin></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" data-sheets-root="1" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; table-layout: fixed; width: 0px;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><colgroup><col width="61"></col><col width="131"></col><col width="424"></col></colgroup><tbody><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); 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font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2/16/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2/16/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/02/blog-post_16.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"核電退場與電價上漲"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/02/blog-post_16.html" target="_blank">核電退場與電價上漲</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2/28/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">2/28/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/02/blog-post_28.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"飛碟早餐專訪本人介紹「暖化尚無定論」一書"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/02/blog-post_28.html" target="_blank">飛碟早餐專訪本人介紹「暖化尚無定論」一書</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"3/7/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">3/7/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/03/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"白花九千億 減碳必跳票"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/03/blog-post.html" target="_blank">白花九千億 減碳必跳票</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); 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font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"4/7/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">4/7/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/04/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"台電是物價上漲消波塊?綠能產業好棒棒?"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/04/blog-post.html" target="_blank">台電是物價上漲消波塊?綠能產業好棒棒?</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":13}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); 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font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">15</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"5/3/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">5/3/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"豈有此理,民眾補貼企業購買綠電"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post.html" target="_blank">豈有此理,民眾補貼企業購買綠電</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":16}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">16</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"5/10/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">5/10/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post_10.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"短評:蔡英文為何擋疫苗?"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post_10.html" target="_blank">短評:蔡英文為何擋疫苗?</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":17}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">17</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"5/18/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">5/18/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post_18.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"小型核電捨近求遠"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post_18.html" target="_blank">小型核電捨近求遠</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":18}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">18</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"5/29/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">5/29/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post_29.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"短評:核電緊急時啓用?賴神的餿主意"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/05/blog-post_29.html" target="_blank">短評:核電緊急時啓用?賴神的餿主意</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":19}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">19</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"6/1/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">6/1/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/06/7.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"綠執政7年 賴談能源政策仍粗糙"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/06/7.html" target="_blank">綠執政7年 賴談能源政策仍粗糙</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":20}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">20</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"6/9/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">6/9/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/06/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"趙少康專訪陳立誠討論能源"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/06/blog-post.html" target="_blank">趙少康專訪陳立誠討論能源</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":21}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">21</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"6/30/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">6/30/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/06/blog-post_30.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"短評:四接困局的聯想"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/06/blog-post_30.html" target="_blank">短評:四接困局的聯想</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":22}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">22</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"7/7/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">7/7/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/07/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"隱瞞缺電賠上政府信譽"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/07/blog-post.html" target="_blank">隱瞞缺電賠上政府信譽</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":23}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">23</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"7/17/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">7/17/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/07/blog-post_17.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"反核反協和 北基大停電"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/07/blog-post_17.html" target="_blank">反核反協和 北基大停電</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":24}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">24</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"7/27/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">7/27/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/07/blog-post_27.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"王美花部長的能源大餅可以休矣"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/07/blog-post_27.html" target="_blank">王美花部長的能源大餅可以休矣</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":25}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">25</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"8/14/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">8/14/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"短評:還在鬼扯消波塊?"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html" target="_blank">短評:還在鬼扯消波塊?</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":26}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">26</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"8/19/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">8/19/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post_19.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"工業總會白皮書能源建言補遺"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post_19.html" target="_blank">工業總會白皮書能源建言補遺</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":27}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">27</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"9/6/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">9/6/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/09/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"畫虎類犬的台灣氫能"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/09/blog-post.html" target="_blank">畫虎類犬的台灣氫能</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":28}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">28</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"9/18/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">9/18/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/09/blog-post_18.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"綠電、通膨、利率的惡性循環"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/09/blog-post_18.html" target="_blank">綠電、通膨、利率的惡性循環</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":29}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">29</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"10/7/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">10/7/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/10/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"杭州亞運全用綠電的探討"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/10/blog-post.html" target="_blank">杭州亞運全用綠電的探討</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":30}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">30</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"10/20/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">10/20/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/10/blog-post_20.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"能源建設 賴清德是無知還是裝傻?"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/10/blog-post_20.html" target="_blank">能源建設 賴清德是無知還是裝傻?</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":31}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">31</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"11/3/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">11/3/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"賴清源能源政策問題百出,應全面修正"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post.html" target="_blank">賴清源能源政策問題百出,應全面修正</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":32}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">32</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"11/23/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">11/23/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post_23.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"氫能與地熱是台灣能源救星?"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post_23.html" target="_blank">氫能與地熱是台灣能源救星?</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":33}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">33</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"12/10/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">12/10/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/12/10.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"10分鐘破解賴清德能源騙術"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/12/10.html" target="_blank">10分鐘破解賴清德能源騙術</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":34}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">34</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"12/19/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">12/19/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/12/cop28.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"COP28決議,蔡政府避重就輕"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/12/cop28.html" target="_blank">COP28決議,蔡政府避重就輕</a></td></tr><tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":35}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">35</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"12/27/2023"}" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">12/27/2023</td><td data-sheets-hyperlink="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/12/blog-post.html" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"短評:賴清德於辯論會之能源誤導"}" style="border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(0, 0, 0) rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #0563c1; font-family: PMingLiu; font-weight: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 3px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle; white-space: normal;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/12/blog-post.html" target="_blank">短評:賴清德於辯論會之能源誤導</a></td></tr></tbody></table>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-50565394296596273452023-12-27T10:55:00.001+08:002023-12-27T10:59:02.981+08:00 短評:賴清德於辯論會之能源誤導<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA8ZaP1mIwoihyVDZzmmw4_gDJlQJ-mJfbcHcglydyqocnBtm_8T4iglGC3L9Q3BVF3YuYld8jGdltfVFt3Ig53g__WNS9-3dd4C7sAPPKSTKqzyLd6AlCp_vSdVlnBXy3d4c03-XOXKdkyuRo3ytR2Y6_jUxjNzhI81SkAm2ZSaMtAMBKPQQB2hXVcCw/s2160/Lai%20debate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1620" data-original-width="2160" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA8ZaP1mIwoihyVDZzmmw4_gDJlQJ-mJfbcHcglydyqocnBtm_8T4iglGC3L9Q3BVF3YuYld8jGdltfVFt3Ig53g__WNS9-3dd4C7sAPPKSTKqzyLd6AlCp_vSdVlnBXy3d4c03-XOXKdkyuRo3ytR2Y6_jUxjNzhI81SkAm2ZSaMtAMBKPQQB2hXVcCw/w541-h406/Lai%20debate.jpg" width="541" /></a></div><br /><p><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">昨天總統侯選人辯論時,賴清德說台灣最缺電是蔡政府剛上任時,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">但目前供電大幅改善。一方面怪馬英九,一方面往自己臉上貼金。</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">極為誤導。下圖為2000-2019完工機組,橫跨陳水扁、</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">馬英九、蔡英文三任總統。</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxz0-Z5IXdyslM4Y03YxgCcS7aT4RA9HfvBM7BFP_HwU_CLN9kc30u27cp0IZOq5duQKIf08F1UAqZG0oAuoZIfKCv5Kyc5UZTqFg4uu-HNMbd_BWt-DILnZ5RggBxCf8PjthQS41z12RMuC3gBtaKtI5ZrdUogDctU111chV6njoww7j5vaGaafV0r_w/s960/PDD%2016-19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="453" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxz0-Z5IXdyslM4Y03YxgCcS7aT4RA9HfvBM7BFP_HwU_CLN9kc30u27cp0IZOq5duQKIf08F1UAqZG0oAuoZIfKCv5Kyc5UZTqFg4uu-HNMbd_BWt-DILnZ5RggBxCf8PjthQS41z12RMuC3gBtaKtI5ZrdUogDctU111chV6njoww7j5vaGaafV0r_w/w604-h453/PDD%2016-19.jpg" width="604" /></a></div><p></p><div dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><div>電力建設非10年不為功,如同捷運,<wbr></wbr>都是由規劃到興建時程極長的基礎建設。都屬於前任動工,<wbr></wbr>後任剪綵的重大工程。<br /></div><div><br /></div><div>馬英九運氣很不好,因陳水扁時代中斷了電力建設,<wbr></wbr>使在馬任內完工機組大幅下降,造成缺電限電的危機。<br /></div><div><br /></div><div>但馬政府時代大力建設電力機組,<wbr></wbr>在蔡英文第一任內總共有八部機組完工,補強台灣電力缺口,<wbr></wbr>蔡英文實在應該好好謝謝馬英九。詳下文:<br /></div><div><br /></div><div>馬留給蔡的能源厚禮<br /></div><div><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.storm.mg/article/119136&source=gmail&ust=1703731908667000&usg=AOvVaw0B-S-Ia6x0wIB09b63uIgv" href="https://www.storm.mg/article/119136" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://www.storm.mg/article/<wbr></wbr>119136</a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>賴清德也主張為了台灣能源供應安全,<wbr></wbr>台中電廠及核電廠屆齡停機後都可轉為備用。<wbr></wbr>但重點不是硬體而是電廠運轉人員,<wbr></wbr>停機後這些電廠上千運轉維護員工都要在廠內留守,<wbr></wbr>多半時間無所事事,孵10年豆芽嗎?詳下文:<br /></div><div><br /></div><div>台中電廠「備用」,又創世界紀錄<br /></div><div><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20210131002764-262105&source=gmail&ust=1703731908667000&usg=AOvVaw2MSFSptZQB-bvd_riX9wpV" href="https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20210131002764-262105" style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://www.chinatimes.com/<wbr></wbr>opinion/20210131002764-262105</a></div></div><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;" />陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-29834622733599030182023-12-19T16:33:00.001+08:002023-12-19T16:33:14.769+08:00 COP28決議,蔡政府避重就輕<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJBtnciNTC37aX60ZCvlOX31Vm2Klxv1svilNi3t1SDC_GLVXig3CdHN9PRAyfQqPACdfrmrN5-flPwG42JD34Cox5l38SkEcRAsExgHGvURvRin6ju8oIXV0MB43dF25WGO44sxIi0CGcAJDen1xIl9-JLLSPb_EvxavsAnpo7JzYUsv-JWN3ZzsHzt4/s300/COP%2028.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJBtnciNTC37aX60ZCvlOX31Vm2Klxv1svilNi3t1SDC_GLVXig3CdHN9PRAyfQqPACdfrmrN5-flPwG42JD34Cox5l38SkEcRAsExgHGvURvRin6ju8oIXV0MB43dF25WGO44sxIi0CGcAJDen1xIl9-JLLSPb_EvxavsAnpo7JzYUsv-JWN3ZzsHzt4/w619-h346/COP%2028.jpg" width="619" /></a></div><br /><p><span face="新細明體, serif" style="background: white; color: #222222;">本文發布於聯合報:</span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 黑體-繁, "Apple LiGothic Medium", PingFang, 微軟正黑體, "Microsoft JhengHei", "WenQuanYi Zen Hei", helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-weight: var(--bold-weight); letter-spacing: 1px;">COP28決議 蔡政府避重就輕</span></p><p><span style="background-color: #fafafa; letter-spacing: 1px;"><span style="font-family: Noto Sans TC, 黑體-繁, Apple LiGothic Medium, PingFang, 微軟正黑體, Microsoft JhengHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">https://udn.com/news/story/7339/7647530</span></span></p><p><span face="新細明體, serif" style="background: white; color: #222222;">全球年度減碳大會</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">COP28</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="background: white; color: #222222;">上週閉幕。此次會議的決議台灣可否達到很值得檢討。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">
<br />
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">COP28</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倡議</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年達成再生能源增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍。針對這一部分經濟部喜孜孜的發布新聞稿,宣稱台灣可以達成,台灣是全球減碳「模範生」。但倡議中更重要的是</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年將碳排降低</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">43%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,這一部分經濟部新聞稿就噤若寒蟬,一字不提。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">這兩個倡議本質有何不同?為何經濟部承諾前者,不敢承諾後者?說穿了,前者是努力程度,增加再生能源有何難哉?砸錢就是。後者才是重點,努力之後成績如何?增加再生能源是為了減碳,但台灣在砸了大錢,增加兩倍再生能源裝置容量後,能減多少碳?<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">依賴清德承諾,台灣在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年綠電占比將由</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">增加為</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">30%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,平均每年增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。但依經濟部預估,台灣每年用電量成長高於</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,換句話說,超過</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部分的用電需求仍將由火力發電提供。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年台灣碳排不增加就謝天謝地,還奢談什麼減碳?經濟部吃了熊心豹膽也不敢承諾減碳</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">43%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">就像某程度很差的學生,第一次考試只考了</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分,雖然承諾要努力讀書,但自知下次考試最多進步到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分,打死都不敢承諾</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">60</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">此次會議的另一重要決議是「逐步淘汰化石燃料」,當然最終目標是</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年達到淨零排放。全球碳排主要來源為電力、交通及工業三者,但後二者減碳遠較電力減碳為困難。所以國際能源總署指出要達到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零碳排,先進國家(包括台灣)電力碳排在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2035</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年必須先行歸零。賴清德的電力配比目標是</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年綠電占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">30%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,火電占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">70%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年之間要將火電全部歸零?可能嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">COP28</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">為火電留了一個後門:裝有</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">碳捕捉設備的火力電廠不必淘汱。但細查經濟部的電力供給規劃,由今年開始到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年完工的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">18</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部大型燃氣機組,無一裝設</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">CCS</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">設備。是否原先可運轉</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">25</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年的燃氣機組,使用</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年就要除役?蔡政府有清楚解釋嗎?此外大力推動不穩定綠能的配套儲能設備又要開銷多大文數字費用,蔡政府也完全避而不談。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">COP28</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的決議,蔡政府的回應完全是避重就輕。反正老百姓也不懂,能騙就騙唄。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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<!--[endif]--></span>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-90392505452775486812023-12-10T08:49:00.005+08:002023-12-10T08:49:45.218+08:00 10分鐘破解賴清德能源騙術<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg427BQviqJVPZpv-uUbllioJIKdCDcN6Pk_sCYbIHX08kUPp_1GHVYOic-09oO7oPzZDqdiYBJlx5_-XZAKMZN-SMUEJi-XcuRbbZ0aDsa3s_M0s9kBIiP22qxh_E-1OV4gSZSfahiJFzdlbrRke-1JUPWgkVHJUB5Iw1oOpQGI2ytbpgqS4ytXIhwQ9Q/s1920/Lai%20video%202.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg427BQviqJVPZpv-uUbllioJIKdCDcN6Pk_sCYbIHX08kUPp_1GHVYOic-09oO7oPzZDqdiYBJlx5_-XZAKMZN-SMUEJi-XcuRbbZ0aDsa3s_M0s9kBIiP22qxh_E-1OV4gSZSfahiJFzdlbrRke-1JUPWgkVHJUB5Iw1oOpQGI2ytbpgqS4ytXIhwQ9Q/w588-h331/Lai%20video%202.JPG" width="588" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">月前賴清德召開記者會宣布其能源政策,不外三個重點:1. 大力發展地熱、海洋能等「前瞻能源」:2. 大力推動不穩定的風光發電,電網無法容納的綠電將予以製氫再發電</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">;3. 2030年電力配比目標為綠電30%,火電70%。</span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">此三大重點都有嚴重問題,請看本人10分鐘視頻一一破解:</span><div><br /></div><div><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://tw.psee.ly/5eble5&source=gmail&ust=1702255709924000&usg=AOvVaw2px_3G6R7IqcwEXlo9beoQ" href="https://tw.psee.ly/5eble5" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; outline: 0px;" target="_blank">https://tw.psee.ly/5eble5</a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">延伸閱讀:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><div><ul class="posts" style="background-color: #fff9ee; border-width: 0px; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; line-height: 1.2; list-style: none none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: -15px;"><li style="background: none; border-width: 0px; list-style: outside none none; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.3em;"><a href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post.html"><span style="color: red;">賴清源能源政策問題百出,應全面修正</span></a></li></ul></div></div>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-57814025166649567982023-11-23T10:52:00.002+08:002023-11-23T10:53:32.248+08:00氫能與地熱是台灣能源救星?<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEn6OxzeS15A9AYm4uT2GKDlRrg-V4HV2VMO1zJBZItwY985iEWinsO7du3iukIHnDGA88l3vRYQAYd6_mW8YuKwbKTappn0bJprLkzmAN1kOGILpgkPdTgyC-mk-bVXWsM70-SI5zlePHNsYrDp4bu64PSdir_5VWaL-SL-YPb6FlMh6fq-eP-ffny-A/s2160/H2%20UAE.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1620" data-original-width="2160" height="471" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEn6OxzeS15A9AYm4uT2GKDlRrg-V4HV2VMO1zJBZItwY985iEWinsO7du3iukIHnDGA88l3vRYQAYd6_mW8YuKwbKTappn0bJprLkzmAN1kOGILpgkPdTgyC-mk-bVXWsM70-SI5zlePHNsYrDp4bu64PSdir_5VWaL-SL-YPb6FlMh6fq-eP-ffny-A/w627-h471/H2%20UAE.PNG" width="627" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">本文發布於風傳媒:<span face=""Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">氫能與地熱是台灣能源救星?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span face="Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #3b3b3b;">https://www.storm.mg/article/4919360</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">減碳抗暖成為全球顯學,蔡政府大力推動「前瞻能源」,各界人士也跟風,一股腦的吹棒。最近看到一些報導對氫能與地熱都有極嚴重的誤導。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">有篇文章說:阿聯酋拚氫能!一天生產的氫氣足以提供台灣三個月用電。仔細拜讀,原來是一場大誤會。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">該文指出阿聯酋全力發展使用太陽光電以電解水製造綠氫,規劃在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2031</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年每年生產</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">100</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸綠氫,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年生產</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">850</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸的綠氫。一噸氫氣可發電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">9300</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度,對減碳功效宏大。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">文中有一段強調,阿聯酋規劃在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2026</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年每天生產</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">600</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">噸綠氫,可產生</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">558</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億度電,約台灣三個月總用電量。這句話就是該報導標題之出處。依該文每噸氫可發電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">9300</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度計算,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">600</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">噸氫可發電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">558</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬度,該文說可發電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">558</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億度,錯了</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬倍。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年台灣用電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2795</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億度,平均每日用電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">7.6</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億度。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">558</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬度可提供台灣</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分鐘用電,如何提供台灣三個月用電?專業人士憑直覺即知絕不可能,可嘆非專業人士對這種離譜數字根本無感。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">進一步討論為何以綠氫發電決非正途。該文報導每噸氫氣可發電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">9300</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度。但以電解水製造</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">公斤氫氣需要</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">40</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度電,製造</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">噸綠氫需要使用</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">40000</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">度綠電。阿聯酋地處沙漠,主要是使用太陽光電電解水製造綠氫,但太陽能產生的本來就是無碳電力,何不直接使用,為何要繞個大彎,以效率不到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">25%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的綠氫發電?國際能源總署預計</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年全球用電約有</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">來自氫能,蔡政府規劃氫電占比高達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">9%-12%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">就大有問題。</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">另一篇文章對地熱大力吹棒。該文指出:相對光電、風電這類「看天吃飯」的間歇性綠能,地熱發電可提供穩定的基載綠電。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">文章也進一步引用「專家」推估:藏在台灣地底下的地熱發電潛力,至少可達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">40GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">(十億瓦),約等於現在台灣的總發電量,代表台灣只要將地熱潛能完全發掘出來,全台其他電廠都關掉,光靠地熱也足以提供台灣目前全部電力需求。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">國際能源總署在九月剛發布了最新版的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零排放報告。報告指出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年全球地熱發電裝置容量</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">15GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,發電占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">0.35%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。預計</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年全球裝置容量</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">129GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,發電占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1.1%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。該雜誌說台灣地熱有</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">40GW</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">潛力,難道全球地熱發電</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">30%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">都蓋在地熱資源相對貧乏的台灣?牛是否吹得太大了?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">國際能源總署報告也指出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年全球核能發電裝置容量</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">417GW, </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">發電占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">9.3%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。預計</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年裝置容量</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">916GW, </span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">發電占比</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">7.8%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。顯然核電一項之減碳功能就強過地熱、海洋能及氫能三者的減碳功能。賴清德能源政策一方面廢核一方面又加碼大力發展「前瞻能源」是否捨本逐末?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">能源是極為複雜的專業知識,可嘆不少社會人對能源一知半解,瞎子摸象,不但自身迷信,還進一步鼓吹各類減碳功效有限的「前瞻能源」誤導民眾,對國家社會造成極大傷害。對能源議題的建言不宜慎乎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br /></span><br /></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-42070249756034690492023-11-03T09:53:00.000+08:002023-11-03T09:53:03.851+08:00 賴清源能源政策問題百出,應全面修正<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdJUM2RamSIIz2Q7pRRs7IeSdhz6-Sm8s-0QOiLTJlMWSpcqBnJck5jZcgpwrUFkTnljSFCC3IRwOVrAd09-opbFliDyySqBMj8yeMo1-rURU67bu0nzMk2u15dxu6Qu_eNpothZbFjN-EpLMm0MxbP1yAGj0C1Tl3cHkp8Lun51JnAEMUc0ppscgYkXo/s4093/Lai%20pie%20chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="4093" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdJUM2RamSIIz2Q7pRRs7IeSdhz6-Sm8s-0QOiLTJlMWSpcqBnJck5jZcgpwrUFkTnljSFCC3IRwOVrAd09-opbFliDyySqBMj8yeMo1-rURU67bu0nzMk2u15dxu6Qu_eNpothZbFjN-EpLMm0MxbP1yAGj0C1Tl3cHkp8Lun51JnAEMUc0ppscgYkXo/w636-h318/Lai%20pie%20chart.png" width="636" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>本文發布於奔騰思潮:<span style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif; letter-spacing: 1.6px;">賴清德能源政策問題百出,應全面修正</span></p><p>https://www.lepenseur.com.tw/article/1557</p><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">上月賴清德在「國家希望工程」記者會發表「第二次能源轉型」政策</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">。賴將蔡英文的能源政策定位為「第一次能源轉型」,所以他提出的</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">是「第二次能源轉型」。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">賴清德的能源政策有三個重點:第一是加速發展地熱、生質能、海洋</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">能與氫能等「前瞻能源」;第二是持續發展光電風電,在短期內大幅</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">增加再生能源占比;第三是新建18部大型燃氣機組以確保供電安全</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">。賴清德提出2030年的電力配比目標為綠電30%,煤電20%</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">,氣電50%。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">賴清德的能源政策骨子裏不脫國發會的「淨零轉型之階段目標及行動</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">」與「淨零轉型12項關鍵戰略行動計劃」両份報告。<span><a name='more'></a></span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">恰好國際能源總署(IEA)在九月剛發佈了一本200餘頁的重量</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">級報告:「2023年版淨零路徑圖」,此報告已成各國政府製定能</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">源政策的重要參考。不妨將賴清德的能源政策與IEA報告對照比較</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">本文依序檢討賴清德能源政策的三大重點。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">第一個重點是發展地熱、生質能、海洋能等前瞻能源。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">與風電光電等間歇性綠能不同,地熱可穩定發電,一直是政府寄以厚</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">望的能源,甚至有地質學者估計台灣20年內可裝置30GW(</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">百萬瓩)的地熱。</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">但IEA報告估計2050年全球地熱裝置129GW,提供全球1</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">%電力。彈丸之地的台灣地熱裝置將占全球25%?顯然地熱並非台</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">灣能源的靈丹妙藥。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">台灣非常不合適發展生質能,生質能需要廣大土地,目前生質能發展</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">較成功的美國、巴西、印尼都是面積廣大國家。IEA報告也指出要</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">避免發展生質能排擠全球糧食及飼料供應。更重要的是生質能是否算</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">是綠能也備受質疑,全球許多大型環保團體都已撤回對生質能的支持</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">。以台灣條件,生質能貢獻極為有限。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">台灣四面環海,許多人鼓吹波浪發電,潮汐發電,洋流發電、溫差發</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">電不遺餘力,以為海洋能大有可為,其實是很大的誤會。IEA估計</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">2030年海洋能對全球電力貢獻為0.05%,2050年為0.</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">16%,台灣也不宜押寶海洋能。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">氫能發展應與賴清德能源第二個重點風電光電一併討論。首先要了解</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">,世界並沒氫礦,氫氣是工業產品,需要消耗其他能源製造。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">為何要將氫能與風電、光電合併討論?原因也很簡單,蔡政府力推氫</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">能真正的原因是承諾了太多風電、光電建設。而獨立電網的台灣,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">不穩定電力在電網中的占比(滲透率)有其上限。</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">今年春節因全國用電下降,綠電滲透率約30%,台電即呼籲民眾出</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">門要拔插頭。依蔡政府規劃,2030年冬天綠能滲透率將高達80</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">%,電網如何承受?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">為避免綠電滲透率過高造成大規模棄電,超過電網𠄘受能力的綠電只</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">能予以儲能。除了鋰電池外,將過多的綠能以電解水製綠氫也是一種</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">儲能手段。但IEA報告對氫能怎麼說?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">IEA報告明確指出綠氫價格由綠電價格決定。台灣多雨,光電成本</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">為國外一倍。台灣地狹人稠,無法大量建設陸域風電,只好大力推動</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">發電成本為陸域發電一倍的離岸風電。因自然與地理條件限制,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">台灣並不合適大力發展綠電。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">IEA深知世界各國綠電成本相差很大,IEA建議綠電成本高昂國</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">家,不宜自製昂貴的綠氫,而應由綠電成本低,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">綠氫成本亦相對低廉的國家進口。日本規劃將來由澳洲(</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">光電成本極為低廉)進口綠氫即為顯例。日本並不準備以國內相對昂</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">貴的綠電製造綠氫。蔡政府政策與日本背道而馳,又走錯了路。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">電力減碳成熟科技較多,故氫氣減碳主要貢獻在於工業製程減碳,長</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">途陸上貨運及海運、空運減碳。以氫氣提供電力本來就不是使用昻貴</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">綠氫減碳的主要目的。IEA規劃在2050年氫能將提供全球1.</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">5%的電力。但依賴清德及蔡政府規劃,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">2050年氫能將提供台灣9-12%電力,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">這都是因為裝置太多光電風電導致氫電占比也畸型提高,正是一步錯</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">,步步錯。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">由以上討論可知花了諾大力氣與天文數字投資的再生能源根本撐不起</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">台灣的供電需求。賴清德所規劃之2030年能源配比,火力發電占</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">比仍高達70%,重中之重為燃氣發電,占比50%。賴清德能源政</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">策第三大重點即為加緊建設總裝置容量高達1700萬瓩(</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">17GW)的18部大型燃氣機組。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">一方面廢核,一方面又要維持台灣供電安全,還要兼顧減碳,大力建</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">設燃氣發電也成了賴清德的唯一選擇。但賴清德又提出「進而達成2</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">050年淨零轉型願景」,這就產生矛盾了。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">許多人並不了解2050年淨零碳排何等艱難。工業、運輸甚至農牧</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">減碳都極為困難,相較之下,電力減碳最為容易。IEA報告中明確</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">指出,要達到2050年淨零排放,先進國家(包括台灣)</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">的電力碳排必需在2035年全部歸零,賴清德規劃2030年火電</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">在電力占比中仍高達七成,如何在5年內歸零?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">IEA報告中也強調因為先進國家在2035要達到碳排歸零,,從</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">現在開始,不應興建沒有配備碳捕捉與儲存設備(CCS)的火電機</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">組。但細查經濟部公布的「電源開發計劃」,由今天到2030年,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">台灣每年都有並未配備CCS的燃氣機組完工。在正常情況,燃氣機</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">組使用年限25年。但如果遵照IEA建議,2030年完工的機組</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">,5年後就要提前除役。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">請教賴清德,如何達成IEA要求的2035年電力淨零排放?如何</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">達成2050年全面淨零排放?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">由以上分析可知賴清德力推加速發展的前瞻能源供電能力極為有限,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">風電光電因獨立電網滲透率限制也不宜過度開發,另外氫氣減碳重點</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">本來就不是電力。再加上IEA大聲疾呼停止興建沒有配備CCS的</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">火電機組。賴清德提出的「第二次能源轉型政策」,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">表面上洋洋灑灑,但都經不起推敲。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">蔡英文選前提出的第一次能源轉型政策,其中有數字的9大硬指標,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">今日檢視全部跳票。最大問題是完全未考慮能源轉型對發電成本的衝</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">擊,如今檢討,該新能源政策將造成每年發電成本增加2500億元</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">賴清德提出的第二次能源轉型政策也無一字提到電力成本,但其鼓吹</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">之綠能、前瞻能源、氫電、儲能再加上燃氣發電,發電成本均遠超傳</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">統提供基載電力的核電與煤電。發電成本的上漲除反映在電費、</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">物價雙漲外,並將影響我國產品之國際競爭力,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">進而衝擊國內就業率。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">由以上解析可知賴清德的第二次能源轉型政策完全經不起檢驗,問題</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">百出,應全面修正。</span>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-86390968042623923592023-10-20T16:20:00.000+08:002023-10-20T16:20:05.942+08:00能源建設 賴清德是無知還是裝傻?<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCflTsodMXZEZOGtzOiKe11AYeuRq2lIDOHZWSmB91WYE2VpPGV_siSkXiJogJa5QSepUlQxVfB6HNs8VwO-tCUFscBwelyMK6EA36rw4IBT9jQAl_l1elMu5WKKLbMYs-WT9ozxEFSLzvvcpG4lBUZFBKh2-iNNdre1tWw3oRglJcVzQquRElPAD7oOs/s799/Lai%20policy.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="799" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCflTsodMXZEZOGtzOiKe11AYeuRq2lIDOHZWSmB91WYE2VpPGV_siSkXiJogJa5QSepUlQxVfB6HNs8VwO-tCUFscBwelyMK6EA36rw4IBT9jQAl_l1elMu5WKKLbMYs-WT9ozxEFSLzvvcpG4lBUZFBKh2-iNNdre1tWw3oRglJcVzQquRElPAD7oOs/w613-h362/Lai%20policy.webp" width="613" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">本文發布於聯合報:</span></span></span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 黑體-繁, "Apple LiGothic Medium", PingFang, 微軟正黑體, "Microsoft JhengHei", "WenQuanYi Zen Hei", helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-weight: var(--bold-weight); letter-spacing: 1px;">能源建設 賴清德是無知還是裝傻?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; letter-spacing: 1px;"><span style="font-family: Noto Sans TC, 黑體-繁, Apple LiGothic Medium, PingFang, 微軟正黑體, Microsoft JhengHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">https://udn.com/news/story/7339/7517416?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222;">
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">民進黨總統參選人賴清德昨天推出能源政見,提出能源轉型五大策略。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">賴清德表示,能源政策首重穩定供電,很多人質疑台灣電力供應能不穩。賴清德指責馬英九任內電力建設嚴重遲滯,八年間電力系統增加之裝置容量只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">268</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩。台灣歷史上,供電穩定度最危險的時候,就是馬英九剛把政權交給蔡英文總統之際,當時備轉容量率只剩</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">1.64</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">%。他當任行政院長時,每天起床,第一個看的資料,就是今天備轉容量率是多少,今天電到底夠不夠。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">個人看了賴清德發言,真是啼笑皆非。沒錯,馬英九第一任極少電力機組完工,第二任甚至沒有任何新機組完工商轉。表面上看來,馬英九迨忽職守。真的如此嗎?電力建設如同捷運建設,由規劃到興建時程極長,非十年不為功,都屬於前任動工,後任剪綵的基礎建設。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">馬英九任內完工的大潭機組是李登輝時代即聘定工程顧問公司開始規劃設計。馬英九運氣很不好,因陳水扁時代中斷了電力建設,使在馬任內完工機組大幅下降,造成馬政府最後一年,蔡政府第一年缺電極為嚴重。但這要怪在馬總統頭上嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">馬英九時代,大力推動電力建設,在蔡政府第一任總共有八部馬英九時代動工的機組完工:林口電廠三部機組,大林電廠兩部機組及通霄電廠三部機組,總共增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">667</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩,備轉容量大幅上升,缺電危機大幅改善。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">蔡總統第二任缺電危機再度浮現,原因也很簡單,因為蔡總統死抱反核黨綱,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2018</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2023</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年六年間,核一及核二共四部運作良好機組未獲延役,反遭強迫除役,電力裝置容量頓失少了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">324</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩,加上每年電力需求穩定增長,一來一往,近年缺電危機再度浮現,蔡總統也只能怪自己。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">以上電力供需過程均為公開資訊,民眾不免納悶賴清德嚴重誤導到底是無知還是裝傻?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br /></span><br /><p></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-27516650176825896732023-10-07T09:07:00.007+08:002023-10-09T11:39:51.715+08:00 杭州亞運全用綠電的探討<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidPGohtvxfYRFpVKgkysY_XWBTpZDYVmTmdLkpE0RJmVNyVknf_3D7jo75YZ77BhgOAxNxD0qSavwytN1WiXL-Ph-xmxsGjnYdIiLVMtAu1YdMsVmLDxmzZ_W4tjKL-IZkWIx7cJbii9iB7hVHXitrRU6v_m0lVP3xzVx46Jo6_60clyxKnNtpcGdjy74/s1024/Asian%20game%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="682" data-original-width="1024" height="389" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidPGohtvxfYRFpVKgkysY_XWBTpZDYVmTmdLkpE0RJmVNyVknf_3D7jo75YZ77BhgOAxNxD0qSavwytN1WiXL-Ph-xmxsGjnYdIiLVMtAu1YdMsVmLDxmzZ_W4tjKL-IZkWIx7cJbii9iB7hVHXitrRU6v_m0lVP3xzVx46Jo6_60clyxKnNtpcGdjy74/w585-h389/Asian%20game%202023.jpg" width="585" /></a></div><br /><p>本文發布於風傳媒:<span face=""Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">杭州亞運全用綠電的探討</span></p><p> https://www.storm.mg/article/4878697</p><p>這兩週杭州亞運正如火如荼的進行,中華隊成績不錯,每天媒體上都大篇幅披</p><p>金戴銀的好消息。綠能業者當然不會錯過此一宣傳綠能的大好機會。</p><p>日前報上有則新聞「杭州亞運 綠能供應全部場館」</p><p>https://udn.com/news/story/7332/7477057。該則新聞說杭州亞洲比賽場館</p><p>用電6.2億度,百分百使用由透過綠電交易由新疆及青海輸來的太陽能與由內蒙</p><p>輸來的風電,這則新聞一定令許多人十分振奮:有為者亦若是。</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /></p><p>但此則新聞有極多值得探討之處。一般人看到「億度」就覺得十分偉大,沒錯</p><p>,億度是很大量的電力。但到底在全浙江用電占比多少?去年浙江全年用電</p><p>5800億度,平均每天用電16億度。杭州亞運共15天,每天平均用電4千萬度,</p><p>表示杭州亞運用電只占浙江用電的2.5%。</p><p><br /></p><p>個人首先感到詫異者為,2.5%的綠電浙江本地都不能提供?還要千里迢迢由新</p><p>疆、青海及內蒙輸入綠電?</p><p><br /></p><p>其次由此遙遠三地輸入綠電又彰顯了兩個重要事實:</p><p>首先,一聽到新疆、青海與內蒙,大家的第一個印象是否就是「地廣人稀」?</p><p>沒錯,地廣人稀就是推動綠能的一個最重要的條件。綠電的能量密度極低,與</p><p>核火電相較,發同樣度數的電,太陽光電需要100倍面積的土地,陸域風電更</p><p>需要500倍面積的土地。</p><p><br /></p><p>難怪國際上有種說法「綠能產業骨子裏是房地產業」。發展綠能首要條件就是</p><p>要取得夠大的土地。新青蒙三地不但地大,人口又極少,很容易取得大面積土</p><p>地發展綠能,那像台灣要絞盡腦汁搞什麼水域發電,農電共生、漁電共生,連</p><p>違建裝置太陽能都就地合法。</p><p><br /></p><p>以風力發電而言,在台灣本島老早就找不到土地,逼得推動每度發電成本為陸</p><p>域風電兩倍的「離岸風電」。台灣成了全球唯一離岸風電裝置容量大於陸域風</p><p>電裝置容量的國家。</p><p><br /></p><p>除了土地面積以外,台灣發展綠電自然條件也遠遜新青蒙三地。新疆及青海有</p><p>許多沙漠地區,終年不雨,陽光普照。每年太陽光電可發電時數是多雨台灣的</p><p>兩倍以上,表示每度光電成本不到台灣一半(尚未考慮沙漠土地成本為零)。</p><p>內蒙風力強勁,每年陸域發電時數超過台灣離岸風電時數更遠超台灣陸域發電</p><p>時數,表示每度風電成本較台灣大力推動的離岸風電成本便宜一半。</p><p><br /></p><p>其次,能由新青蒙三地跨越兩、三千公里向杭州輸電的另一極重要條件是中國</p><p>獨步全球的超高壓輸電技術。台灣最高超高壓輸電為345瓩交流輸電,中國早</p><p>已突破1000瓩,並可採用直流輸電。長江三峽初建成時,就是利用超高壓直流</p><p>輸電輸往長三角上海等地。今天金沙江水力發電裝置容量遠超長江三峽,所發</p><p>電力也是利用中國超高壓技術供應沿海電力需求殷切的省分。</p><p><br /></p><p>由杭州亞運少量綠電浙江本地都無法提供而要由新青蒙三地供應,顯示中國對</p><p>各省綠電裝置容量並非斉頭似要求,而是因地置宜。對浙江等相對地窄人稠的</p><p>省份並未強力要求。全國一盤棋,綠電發展是考量土地及自然條件有不同規模</p><p>探討「杭州亞運全用綠電」可提供台灣許多啓示。</p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-84561822662447820742023-09-18T09:23:00.004+08:002023-09-18T09:23:47.945+08:00綠電、通膨、利率的惡性循環<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxIwnzqS3vm5SybtVQoUfgjE-WaRXLawPG_RB6dElJP95fdkr9zOVflmeuf3HxSStVvWR5mSEfLqz7NwnTDxaUcqS9Lbo-zDSRqhzSUPh13fVymNMTwLV-4dS08KESv4zcVvQioRf7fi7jJx2AUv6WsmStJ7J5dvyXG_MoMjP6SIwOv6V-hX7rnJdCiNo/s1280/solar+wind.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxIwnzqS3vm5SybtVQoUfgjE-WaRXLawPG_RB6dElJP95fdkr9zOVflmeuf3HxSStVvWR5mSEfLqz7NwnTDxaUcqS9Lbo-zDSRqhzSUPh13fVymNMTwLV-4dS08KESv4zcVvQioRf7fi7jJx2AUv6WsmStJ7J5dvyXG_MoMjP6SIwOv6V-hX7rnJdCiNo/w535-h356/solar+wind.jpg" width="535" /></a></div><div><br /></div>本文發布於風傳媒:<span style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">綠電、通膨、利率的惡性循環</span><div><span style="color: #3b3b3b; font-family: Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.7px;">https://www.storm.mg/article/4869450</span><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">許多人不了解利率對電價的影響。這兩年各國央行猛調利率,各國才警覺:在各種發電方式中,利率對綠電電價的衝擊最大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">利率對綠電衝擊最大原因在於除了少量維護支出外,綠電成本全數集中在開頭的裝置成本。開發商與電力公司簽訂</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年固定費率售電合約時,重點在於每瓩裝置成本,完全無需考量燃料費用。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">假設某綠電開發商花了</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2000</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元裝設了綠電設備,假設在沒有通膨,利率為零,折現率也為零的時代。該開發商與電力公司簽了</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年固定費率合約,因折現率為零,開發商未來</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年每年收到的電費收入,其價值與第一年一樣,每年電費</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">100</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元,折現到今天是</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2000</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元,足以回本。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但假設利率與折現率都是</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年後的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">100</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元折現到今天只值</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">16</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年收到的全部電費折現在當前只有</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">936</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元,不夠回本。開發商與電力公司簽</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">20</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年合約時,每年要收固定電費</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">214</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元才足以回本。電費將為折現率為零時的兩倍以上。並且是由第一年開始電費就要漲一倍。假設太陽光電在低折現率時購電合約每度</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">4</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元,現在購電合約一開始就要漲到每度</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">8</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">以燃氣發電對照,台灣氣電成本中</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">9</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">成是燃料(天然氣)成本,建廠成本只佔</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">成。民營氣電公司與台電簽售電合約時,電費分為容量費率與能量費率,前者攤提建廠成本,後者依每季燃料成本調整。利率與折現率只影響電費中</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">成的容量費率,即使利率與折現率由零升為</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,對發電成本的影響不是如綠電的</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">100%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">而是</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">10%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">自</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">2008</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年金融危機以來,全球利率多年來都在零利率徘迴。十多年來全球綠電正是在低利率環境下顯得很有競爭力,因而大幅成長。但三年疫情過後,全球通膨嚴重,各國央行不得不調高利率對抗通膨。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台灣通膨有額外原因,台灣地理條件不佳,綠電成本較國外高了一倍,極為昂貴,離岸風電第一個標案每度電費高達</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">7</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元。但蔡政府反核,以無碳綠電取代無碳核電。核電在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">6</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部機組正常運轉時,每度成本</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元。以綠電取代每年</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">400</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億度核電,每年電費增加至少</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">1500</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元,再加上打消核四建廠成本</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222;">3000</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">億元,電費上漲對台灣通膨絕對是火上加油。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">為了抑制通膨,央行只好調升利率,但如前所述,利率調升又會使綠電變貴,增加通膨壓力。綠電、通膨、利率正是台灣目前落入的惡性循環。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br /></span><br /><p></p></div>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-39480132171430174152023-09-06T08:40:00.003+08:002023-09-06T08:40:58.587+08:00畫虎類犬的台灣氫能<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8z7_fsKaUvZ4MAYM2IS1Xedv_YDMhcpZcJOHDJZWVzQVHz1HRIfWPxH4iSftE-x-pq6uGwiEiWt5RCF6bm0aX5J8I_biCc8HtOSp8uSy0bwV73yRdkq6ki5HsL9tuM-Gz-dPIfnAXkYItWAXUrEfe58maXBgQ_c4BVSgUfUEm8UacBpJ2QE20j_X71JY/s1024/H2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="1024" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8z7_fsKaUvZ4MAYM2IS1Xedv_YDMhcpZcJOHDJZWVzQVHz1HRIfWPxH4iSftE-x-pq6uGwiEiWt5RCF6bm0aX5J8I_biCc8HtOSp8uSy0bwV73yRdkq6ki5HsL9tuM-Gz-dPIfnAXkYItWAXUrEfe58maXBgQ_c4BVSgUfUEm8UacBpJ2QE20j_X71JY/w623-h414/H2.jpg" width="623" /></a></div><br /><p>本文發布於奔騰思潮:<span style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif; letter-spacing: 1.6px;">畫虎類犬的臺灣氫能</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: 1.6px;"><span style="color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif;">https://www.lepenseur.com.tw/article/1512</span></span></p><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">氫能在今日台灣是當紅炸子雞,蔡政府投入極大資源發展,<wbr></wbr>媒體上新聞不斷。出風頭的程度絕對不輸離岸風電與太陽光電,<wbr></wbr>給大眾的印象為氫能是台灣減碳抗暖大救星。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">但細察政府對氫能的規劃,與其他國家相較,台灣又走偏了路,<wbr></wbr>台灣人民又要為錯誤政策付出昂貴代價。<wbr></wbr>台灣走錯路的原因也其來有自。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">全球人為碳排最大來源不脫電力、交通及工業三大區塊,<wbr></wbr>畜牧與伐林占比有限。<wbr></wbr>全球減碳主要目標當然就集中於上述三大區塊。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">以電力而言,減碳手段極多,如核電,水電、光電、<wbr></wbr>風電等技術都已很成熟。另外如鋰電池,碳捕捉與封存等,<wbr></wbr>十年後或可降低成本大量商業化。以電力而言,減碳手段洋洋灑灑,<wbr></wbr>氫能扮演的角色其實相當有限。<span><a name='more'></a></span><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">以交通而言,目前最重要的手段就是運具電氣化。<wbr></wbr>但電氣化只適合小型車輛,長途貨運不適合使用鋰電池。<wbr></wbr>鋰電池也不合適使用於航空及海運,<wbr></wbr>各國都在研究以氫能或其化合物使用於這些交通工具以減碳。<wbr></wbr>因此氫氣及其化合物在交通減碳方面將扮演一定角色。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">工業減碳十分困難,因有許多工業製程本身的化學反應就有碳排,<wbr></wbr>所以減碳就需要改變製程。改採以氫作為原料,<wbr></wbr>沒有碳排的製程就是工業減碳的重要方向。<wbr></wbr>氫氣將在工業減碳扮演極重要的角色。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">以全球而言,氫能之主要應用是在工業減碳及交通減碳兩大區塊,<wbr></wbr>各國規劃利用氫氣或其化合物作為發電減碳佔比都極小。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">但台灣反其道而行,依國發會規劃,<wbr></wbr>2050年台灣氫氣使用量將高達380萬噸,交通使用量只有5%<wbr></wbr>,三成使用於工業,超過六成使用於電力。<wbr></wbr>2050年氫能發電占比高達9-12%,<wbr></wbr>這就是個人所說台灣在氫能利用上又走偏了路。何以致此?<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">這又要回溯到廢核展綠再加上風電國產化的一連串政策錯誤。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">蔡政府力推綠電是因為有廢核的時程壓力。<wbr></wbr>核電六部機在蔡總統當政的2018年至2025年次第停機。<wbr></wbr>核電為無碳電力,<wbr></wbr>所以蔡政府急著發展同樣無碳的太陽能及離岸風電,<wbr></wbr>以補上廢核後的無碳電力缺口。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">這還不打緊。蔡總統心心念念要在台灣發展大型新產業,<wbr></wbr>以便名留青史。在推動離岸風電時,蔡政府一魚兩吃,<wbr></wbr>想順便發展離岸風電產業,為台灣創造一個新的護國神山。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">蔡政府規劃在2025年核電全部除役時,完成20GW 的太陽能及5.5GW的離岸風電加上1.<wbr></wbr>2GW的陸域風電取代核電。但2018年離岸風電招標時,<wbr></wbr>分成許多標案而由7家不同開發商得標,各家採用的風機並不相同,<wbr></wbr>所以表面上看來5.5GW的裝置容量不小,但由不同廠商分食後,<wbr></wbr>各類型風機裝置容量都不夠大,不足以回收龐大的國產化初始投資,<wbr></wbr>本土廠商對投入國產化興趣缺缺。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">蔡政府為鼓勵本土廠商投入離岸風電產業,只好答應將餅做大,<wbr></wbr>宣布將在2026年到2035年的10年間,每年平均增加1.<wbr></wbr>5GW的離岸風電,10年共增加15GW,<wbr></wbr>2035年時離岸風電總裝置容量將達20.5GW。<wbr></wbr>但勿忘蔡政府也同時鼓勵太陽光電,許多綠營金主更是競相投入,<wbr></wbr>為了利益均霑,<wbr></wbr>蔡政府同時宣布在2026年到2035年的10年間,<wbr></wbr>每年平均增加2GW的太陽光電,<wbr></wbr>2035年時太陽光電總裝置容量將達40GW。離岸風電、<wbr></wbr>陸域風電加上太陽光電,<wbr></wbr>2035年不穩定的綠電總裝置容量將高達62GW,<wbr></wbr>相當於台灣目前電力總裝置容量。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">今年(2023年)台灣午後平均尖峰用電,夏天約39GW,<wbr></wbr>冬天約28GW。依政府預估尖峰用電年增率2%計算,<wbr></wbr>2035年平均尖峰用電,夏天約50GW,冬天約36GW,<wbr></wbr>都遠低於上述之綠電裝置容量62GW。<wbr></wbr>當然台灣不可能時時刻刻陽光普照,風力強勁,保守以60%<wbr></wbr>可用率計算,2035年午後綠電平均可提供37GW 電力。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">綠電滲透率為不穩定綠電佔全部供電比率,依以上數據,<wbr></wbr>2035年夏天及冬天之綠電滲透率將高達75%及100%。<wbr></wbr>今年春節因全台用電降低,綠電滲透率接近30%,<wbr></wbr>台電就呼籲民眾出門要拔插頭,以免電器因電壓不穩受損。<wbr></wbr>獨立電網的台灣怎麼可能容納75%及100%的綠電滲透率?<wbr></wbr>必將發生大規模棄電以維持電網穩定。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">此時氫能就派上用場了。<wbr></wbr>蔡政府的如易算盤即為在綠電滲透率過高時,以電網無法消受,<wbr></wbr>本將放棄不用的綠電改用於電解水製氫。等太陽下山,<wbr></wbr>綠電供電減少時,再以氫氣經燃料電池發電,補上不足的電力。<wbr></wbr>這一切規劃都太完美了,<wbr></wbr>但為何世界其他國家沒有採用此一妙計儲存不穩定的綠電?<wbr></wbr>為何其他國家規劃氫電佔比都遠低於台灣?<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">成本,能源規劃不能不考慮成本。儲能方式有許多種,<wbr></wbr>每種效率不同,以鋰電池儲電10度,可取回9度電。<wbr></wbr>以抽蓄電廠儲電,考慮蒸發等損失,可取回8度電。<wbr></wbr>以電解水方式製造氫氣,投入10度電,再以燃料電池發電,<wbr></wbr>取回不到5度電,效率極差。若以每度4元的綠電電解水製氫,<wbr></wbr>表示以氫氣儲能再發的電力,單單燃料成本每度就超過8元,<wbr></wbr>還要加上燃料電池成本,電價將為天價。與其他國家相較,<wbr></wbr>台灣發展綠能條件極差,綠電成本為其他國家一倍,為何非要蠻幹?<wbr></wbr>非要大力推動其他國家並不看好的氫能發電?<wbr></wbr>與國外智庫建議綠能昻貴國家應進口氫氣以利交通工業減碳之建議背<wbr></wbr>道而馳。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">國發會規劃台灣有極高的氫能發電,<wbr></wbr>原因之一當然是因廢核導致低碳電力配比選擇受限。<wbr></wbr>但另外一重要原因恐為強推離岸風電國產化,大量設置離岸風電,<wbr></wbr>使得不穩定的綠電滲透率過高。<wbr></wbr>異想天開以極昂貴的電解水製氫儲能,本末倒置,<wbr></wbr>終於導至規劃過多的氫能發電<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">廢核,展綠,風電國產化,電解水製氫,<wbr></wbr>氫能發電占比過高完全是錯誤政策所造成。以上發展一環扣一環,<wbr></wbr>真是一步錯,步步錯。為什麼橘逾淮為枳,<wbr></wbr>許多事情到了台灣就變了樣?氫能尤為畫虎類犬。<wbr></wbr>只知死抱反核神主牌,<wbr></wbr>民進黨政府的錯誤能源政策給台灣造成的傷害實在太大了。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: small;" /></div>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-18402921169512895602023-08-19T09:21:00.001+08:002023-08-19T09:21:16.876+08:00 工業總會白皮書能源建言補遺<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMYK7_uYHPhAolOZKkz4UxHYVDVA_6fAld5pJ3afHawf1WGd3-FvneunqKudLCh4YmfFmbyG-Ef5htrIEr2A2bLQ0ZxC11CLvC_ja946e6ZXaYtyG_6LLTaHmLEg2DTwhgRIQMDHCdUywt6KuL_ftjvbx1KIsmZQ0N_N_6Q4Cs_5UKBZ5_ymKejMFj7to/s840/white%20paper%20cnfi%202023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="661" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMYK7_uYHPhAolOZKkz4UxHYVDVA_6fAld5pJ3afHawf1WGd3-FvneunqKudLCh4YmfFmbyG-Ef5htrIEr2A2bLQ0ZxC11CLvC_ja946e6ZXaYtyG_6LLTaHmLEg2DTwhgRIQMDHCdUywt6KuL_ftjvbx1KIsmZQ0N_N_6Q4Cs_5UKBZ5_ymKejMFj7to/w364-h462/white%20paper%20cnfi%202023.png" width="364" /></a></div><br /><p><span face="新細明體, serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">本文發布於風傳媒:</span><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">淨零排碳成國王的新衣─工總白皮書能源建言補遺</span></p><p><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span style="color: #3b3b3b; font-family: Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif;">https://www.storm.mg/article/4853907</span></span></p><p><span face="新細明體, serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">近日工業總會公布了</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">2023</span><span face="新細明體, serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">年白皮書,針對政府建議分為八個章節,其中包括對能源暨環境政策的建言。個人忝為能源委員會委員,僅針對本章節提出一些淺見。</span></p><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">全球暖化已成全球顯學,工總針對能源暨環境政策八大建言中有三項直接針對減碳,另外三項:能源配比、離岸風電及氫能發展也無不環繞減碳目標。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">頗為遺憾個人提出的兩項建言並未納入白皮書之最後版本,但個人認爲此二建言對台灣未來能源政策仍有相當意義,應值得進一步解析。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span><a name='more'></a></span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">縱觀今年白皮書之能源建言其實有一潛規則,就是全面接受</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">淨零碳排的目標,此與往年工總立場有相當大的差異。往年工業界對</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">淨零碳排之目標其實有相當大的疑慮,往年白皮書多次呼籲政府不宜將此一目標入法,但今年似乎完全接受此一目標已入法之事實,許多建言是在接受此減碳目標下之產物。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但將此一目標年入法就表示一定能達成嗎?減碳是否能達成完全是個科技問題而不是立個法就可以達成的。如果立法即可達成,為何不將淨零時程提前到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年?如果大家認為</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2025</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年十分荒謬,為何認為</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年就不荒謬?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">其實各國有能源實務經驗的專業人士極少人認為此一目標可行。夸夸其言,認為可行的多為沒有絲毫能源實務經驗的政客及環保與社運人士。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">在</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2018</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年因其在「氣候經濟學」領域的卓越貢獻而榮獲諾貝爾經濟獎的耶魯大學教授諾德豪斯即多次指出不要說</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年,</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2100</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年都不可能達成淨零碳排。追求一個不可能達成的目標,過程中一定會狗急跳牆,採取許多不合理不可能達成的措施與政策。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">這一點其實政府也心知肚明,只是國王的新衣,無人敢予拆穿。個人建言也不過是要求政府將減碳政策攤在陽光下供各界檢視,要求政府誠實面對現實。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">個人兩項建言之第一項為:「政府宜公布</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年至</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年每年各部門減碳目標與成效以檢驗</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年階段性減碳目標達成率」。針對此一建言之具體說明如下:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">政府於</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">12</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月底提出「淨零轉型之階段目標及行動」,提出</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年階段性減碳目標。與</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年相較,規劃電力部門減碳</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">11%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,運輸部門減碳</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">24%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,住商部門減碳</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">26%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,碳滙增加</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">60%</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。政府宜明定自</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年至</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年間,每年各部門減碳及碳滙增加目標並逐年檢驗目標是否達成,以加強社會對達到</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2030</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年減碳階段性目標之信心。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">個人第二項建言為:「宜由減碳功效、時程及成本評估各種減碳技術」,具體說明如下:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">政府將</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">淨零排放列為政策目標,並於「</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">淨零排放淨零路徑報告」列舉許多減碳科技如:光電、風電、海洋能、地熱、碳捕捉、氫能及智慧電網等。但評估報告針對這些減碳科技多為定性描述,缺乏定量數據。政府討論各項減碳技術時宜有定量數字解説該技術在不同年份(</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2020</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">至</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年,每隔五年)將分別以多少成本減多少碳排。有此定量數據方可評估各種技術之可行性,各種技術之優劣及推動之優先順序。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">減碳抗暖,尤其是</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2050</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年淨零碳排的目標完全主導了台灣今日能源政策,個人建言不過是正本清源,呼籲各界正視減碳時程的可行性。建立在不可行目標的政策與建言,正如建立在沙灘上的沙堡,無法</span><span face=""新細明體-ExtB",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體-ExtB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">𠄘</span><span face=""新細明體",serif" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">受能源科技現實的浪花。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
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<!--[endif]--></span>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-1370686341566662742023-08-14T13:45:00.002+08:002023-08-14T13:45:41.151+08:00 短評:還在鬼扯消波塊?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXsGqzYmJuNwFIXiFJi1iqE6B8J_f-oQ4B9ZugMLMGlF5qpK5Rn6IjDyS5w_Kbk5LrzporU3tagjm_A4B2Jlg4Z3UVhmTkzHUko5Bg7M7KCmpuJE9V8FrgV94HJfDrqiXFIYHeQGI75ZlGURPcFu3fFnjWMrk1SS4lqNOYTh6qaXe7OPOjcBPlz_te8M8/s749/wave%20rock.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="432" height="581" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXsGqzYmJuNwFIXiFJi1iqE6B8J_f-oQ4B9ZugMLMGlF5qpK5Rn6IjDyS5w_Kbk5LrzporU3tagjm_A4B2Jlg4Z3UVhmTkzHUko5Bg7M7KCmpuJE9V8FrgV94HJfDrqiXFIYHeQGI75ZlGURPcFu3fFnjWMrk1SS4lqNOYTh6qaXe7OPOjcBPlz_te8M8/w336-h581/wave%20rock.png" width="336" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">台電高層真會鬼扯,現在還扯台電是台灣物價上漲消波塊?曾董意思</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">是說台電去年雖調高電價,但並未全部反映燃料漲價造成的損失,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">台電「吸收」了部分燃料上漲的成本。雖然造成台電虧損,但也舒緩</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">了部分物價上漲壓力,所以台電是物價上漲消波塊。</span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">但同篇新聞副標就漏餡。副標指出明年台電將再增資1000億元,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">加上今年增資的1500億元,台電增資2500億元才勉強不致破</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">產。但這2500億元是天上掉下來的?</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">還不是來自人民繳納的稅款?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">物價上漲,人民要掏右口袋,台電增資,人民要掏左口袋。台電扮演</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">了什麼「消波塊」?不過政府在能源政策上鬼扯也是慣犯了。針對消</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">波塊一說請參考延伸閱讀。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">延伸閱讀:</span><div><ul class="posts" style="background-color: #fff9ee; border-width: 0px; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; line-height: 1.2; list-style: none none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: -15px;"><li style="background: none; border-width: 0px; list-style: outside none none; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding: 0.25em 0px 0.25em 1.3em;"><a href="https://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2023/04/blog-post.html"><span style="color: red;">台電是物價上漲消波塊?綠能產業好棒棒?</span></a></li></ul></div>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-19549741443757757632023-07-27T08:47:00.002+08:002023-07-27T08:47:28.382+08:00 王美花部長的能源大餅可以休矣<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicM7vyJRL1bpOPGt4sWF9O1F5acfJJdhnLosMVJtmu9b-uN-oiwlCX81LALoE8WQNPWGFP6yvQmtyFQchdQ7hEV35RBkRoImmpB1QhxtXqAZ-Ql42yPKpm7qKhzFcItSbEmiybKrcjjIT-p35d49oCHKt4lgZh0auw06-mSicx65vjV7nCnlUIF02PlHw/s1140/Wang.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1140" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicM7vyJRL1bpOPGt4sWF9O1F5acfJJdhnLosMVJtmu9b-uN-oiwlCX81LALoE8WQNPWGFP6yvQmtyFQchdQ7hEV35RBkRoImmpB1QhxtXqAZ-Ql42yPKpm7qKhzFcItSbEmiybKrcjjIT-p35d49oCHKt4lgZh0auw06-mSicx65vjV7nCnlUIF02PlHw/w499-h374/Wang.jpg" width="499" /></a></div><div><br /></div>本文發布於聯合報:<span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", 黑體-繁, "Apple LiGothic Medium", PingFang, 微軟正黑體, "Microsoft JhengHei", "WenQuanYi Zen Hei", helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-weight: var(--bold-weight); letter-spacing: 1px;">部長的能源大餅可休矣</span><div><span style="font-family: Noto Sans TC, 黑體-繁, Apple LiGothic Medium, PingFang, 微軟正黑體, Microsoft JhengHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px;">https://udn.com/news/story/7339/7327726?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2</span><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">前幾天經濟部長王美花在新能源國際論壇發表能源政策新藍圖演講,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">描述了蔡政府對台灣未來的能源規劃,畫了一個大餅。該規劃問題重</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">重,篇幅所限,僅簡單討論以下幾點。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">首先大家最關心的是未來兩年的電力短缺問題,王部長在演講開始即</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">予以「澄清」。王部長指出未來七年電力新增裝置容量都遠大於除役</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">機組裝置容量。但部長並未提供每年新增裝置容量中傳統大型機組及</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">再生能源各增加多少?未來增加最多的是太陽光電,但目前備轉容量</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">最吃緊時刻為夜晚7時太陽下山,太陽光電喪失功能的第二尖峰。王</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">部長應誠實向全國民眾解釋如何解決第二尖峰電力緊迫的問題,而非</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">以大量增加的太陽光電忽攏民眾。<span><a name='more'></a></span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">其次部長很自豪的指出今年7/1到7/5中午時段風光滲透率連續</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">5天突破2成。所謂滲透率就是瞬間不穩定風光電在供電系統中的占</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">比。大家應該還記得,今年過年時台電呼籲民眾出門拔插頭。原因是</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">過年時期全台用電降低,風光電占比增為3成,若台電應變不及,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">電壓颷高,恐損壞家庭電器。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">但今天過年時風光電裝置容量只不過11GW,依政府規劃2025</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">年將升至25.6GW,2030年及2035年更將升至43GW</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">及60GW。若天候條件好時,可提供15GW,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">26GW及36GW的電力。屆時不穩定電力滲透率在冬天用電較少</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">時將分別為5成,8成及百分之百。滲透率2成就很自豪,滲透率3</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">成就要大家拔插頭,將來怎麼辦?當然部長提出削峯填谷等儲電手段</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">,天價儲電成本部長當然避而不談。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">其實王部長演講中令人最難以忍受的乃是吹噓發展離岸風電產業的功</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">勞。王部長指出過去六年離岸風電相關製造業新增建廠投資680億</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">元,產值760億元,新增就業3800人。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">離岸風電的最終產品是電力,但電力無法外銷,電費是全國企業及人</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">民所繳納,離岸風電沒有為台灣創造半毛錢外滙。蔡政府花了諾大力</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">氣建立的離岸風電產業,賺的是國內的錢。而不是半導體等電子產業</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">為台灣創造大量外匯。此外離岸風電產業的產值乃來自暴增的電費。</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">蔡政府以離岸風電取代核電,用戶支付以每度高過核電3、5倍的離</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">岸風電費率流入離岸風電產業。全國人民多交的電費,乾坤大挪移到</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">離岸風電廠商,是明目張膽的「劫貧濟富」。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">王部長畫的大餅真可以休矣。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br /></div>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-1254409576218407812023-07-17T08:53:00.002+08:002023-07-17T08:54:30.766+08:00 反核反協和 北基大停電<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8Qr4L-cHe6FLH6-_U_1fS9boJXayjEYlwE7kn2dEPmx7IQpv0dQykxE2vQXLmtSbuOf6aLQDI4jvNLcVwPxI9JaDpvB2uBsf2cYNEXkWllGRjq_GvG0l5PCmfH8nfVDgWXGNOmzMFmzKuhwaU05Savr-Qui-IyQw8Ffy3ptzzHj3Ph8g6k89pKcRnfQ/s800/Northern%20power%20plant.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8Qr4L-cHe6FLH6-_U_1fS9boJXayjEYlwE7kn2dEPmx7IQpv0dQykxE2vQXLmtSbuOf6aLQDI4jvNLcVwPxI9JaDpvB2uBsf2cYNEXkWllGRjq_GvG0l5PCmfH8nfVDgWXGNOmzMFmzKuhwaU05Savr-Qui-IyQw8Ffy3ptzzHj3Ph8g6k89pKcRnfQ/w577-h325/Northern%20power%20plant.jpg" width="577" /></a></div><br /><p><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">本文發布於風傳媒:</span><span face=""Noto Sans TC", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: whitesmoke; color: #3b3b3b; letter-spacing: 0.7px;">反核反協和─北基大停電</span></p><p><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span face="Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #3b3b3b;">https://www.storm.mg/article/4832083</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: whitesmoke; letter-spacing: 0.7px;"><span face="Noto Sans TC, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #3b3b3b;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">近日基隆第四天然氣接收站及協和電廠是熱門新聞。</span><wbr style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">有環保人士表示,依日前經濟部公布的111年全國電力供需報告,</span><wbr style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></wbr><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">協和與四接之開發必要性大有疑問。果真如此?</span></p><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">該環保人士論點有許多問題,本文無暇一一指出。<wbr></wbr>本文要討論者為該文所忽略,<wbr></wbr>但極為彰顯協和及四接必要性之北部缺電問題。<span><a name='more'></a></span><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">大家都知道北部電力不夠,長期依賴中南電北送。<wbr></wbr>立法院針對台電102年度至111年度營業預算評估報告即明確指<wbr></wbr>出:若電力需求成長速度維持不變,<wbr></wbr>則112年度至113年度將發生北部電力缺口超逾中南電北送之能<wbr></wbr>力,北部地區恐有限電之虞。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">但北部又因地形,以陽明山、淡水河、大漢溪分為北東、<wbr></wbr>北西両個供電區。全國首善之區的台北市 、協和電廠所在之基隆市都位於北東供電區。北東供電區原有核二、<wbr></wbr>協和、深澳及和平四個電廠,裝置容量527萬瓩,<wbr></wbr>勉強提供北東約600萬瓩的電力需求。目前核二及深澳均已除役,<wbr></wbr>協和也將於明年除役,北東只剩下一個裝置容量只有130萬瓩,<wbr></wbr>遠在花蓮的和平電廠,可說命懸一線。<wbr></wbr>前幾年因颱風吹垮和平電廠輸電鐵塔害得全國公務人員停用冷氣一事<wbr></wbr>,大家應該記憶猶新。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">電力規劃是十年大計。回顧十年前,台電原本規劃核二延役,<wbr></wbr>核四商轉,深澳更新,以確保北東供電。<wbr></wbr>但在蔡政府堅持反核政策及反煤電反深澳公投後,全部泡湯。<wbr></wbr>如今連唯一倖存的協和計劃也要反對?<wbr></wbr>北東500萬人民日子要怎麼過?<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">以整體北部而言,去年夏季尖峰缺口已高達220萬瓩,<wbr></wbr>今年3月核二廠2號機除役,缺口擴大為320萬瓩,<wbr></wbr>已接近中南電北送輸電能力極限。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">依經濟部去年7月公布之110年度電力供需報告,大潭8號機(<wbr></wbr>112萬瓩)將於去年9月商轉,大潭9號機(112萬瓩)<wbr></wbr>將於今年4月商轉,北部供電能力增加224萬瓩。但時至今日,<wbr></wbr>不用說大潭9號機,連大潭8號機都尚未商轉,去年承諾全部跳票。<wbr></wbr>個人對日前經濟部公布的111年度電力供需報告抱著看看就好,<wbr></wbr>不可當真的態度。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">北基是否限電,大家只有自求多福。<wbr></wbr>當然今天北部缺電如此嚴重的罪𣁽禍首是反核的蔡政府,<wbr></wbr>但除非蔡政府立即放棄非核家園政策,<wbr></wbr>否則請堅決反對四接與協和的環保民粹人士高抬貴手,<wbr></wbr>留台北與基隆兩市人民一條生路。<br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: small;" /></div>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346904490050610952.post-53704548869329403632023-07-07T09:01:00.000+08:002023-07-07T09:01:08.161+08:00隱瞞缺電賠上政府信譽<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2_c9Ug7K0TLO6hIIvcKbijCrE1YHj19BiytpYYp-sQSiwyNteiXezfwEp6p5eg6llYqiibx1nnYNswzbkjPvv0JGoiF8eTYN93Dop8ToTeAidlRIee1Z-H8q5NIx0WZOc2R_47r5crI-zNAeWj_7RQ4r-2JErHdJRAKMu0dR00py2780dKc2phqiEnLA/s1680/Tsai%2023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="976" data-original-width="1680" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2_c9Ug7K0TLO6hIIvcKbijCrE1YHj19BiytpYYp-sQSiwyNteiXezfwEp6p5eg6llYqiibx1nnYNswzbkjPvv0JGoiF8eTYN93Dop8ToTeAidlRIee1Z-H8q5NIx0WZOc2R_47r5crI-zNAeWj_7RQ4r-2JErHdJRAKMu0dR00py2780dKc2phqiEnLA/w612-h356/Tsai%2023.jpg" width="612" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">本文發布於奔騰思潮:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif; letter-spacing: 1.6px;">隱瞞缺電賠上政府信譽</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: 1.6px;"><span style="color: #212529; font-family: source-han-serif-tc, serif;">https://www.lepenseur.com.tw/article/1462</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;">
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">時序七月,是每年用電創新高的月份。全國人民尤其是工商界都揑把汗擔心限電,蔡政府與台電更是天天提心吊膽過日子。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台灣到底缺電嗎?台積電董事長劉德音上月在股東會上說「台灣的政府認為我們電是夠的,那我們只能相信他。」這句話很值得玩味。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">先要定義什麼是缺電?許多民眾以為發生大停電才是缺電,只要沒有發生大停電就沒有缺電。如果真的如此,政府何必將每年備用容量率目標訂為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">15%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,每天備轉容量率目標訂為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">10%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">?因為維持這些比率才有把握將限電機率降到可接受的程度。實際上,只要備轉容量率低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">10%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,只要燈號不是綠燈就可說是缺電,低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">6%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">就容易發生限電。<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2022</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年為例,不要說備轉容量率低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">10%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">6%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,表示供電警戒橙燈的日子就有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">10</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">天之多(經濟部對外宣稱</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">天)。去年備轉容量率最低的一天發生在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">4/26</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">(春季許多機組大修尚未歸隊,氣溫又飆高)。當天備轉容量只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">70</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩,備轉容量率降至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。燈號為限電警戒的紅燈,離</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">50</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩限電準備的黑燈只有一步之遙,這還不是缺電?但當天台電對外公布備轉容量率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">8.8%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,燈號是供電吃緊的黃燈。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">問題出在那裡?燈號的原始目的在於提醒民眾供電或有不足,民眾最好節約用電。在燈號為紅燈以下時,更要有停電限電的心理準備。燈號當然應以每天最低的備轉容量率為準。三年之前台灣每日最低備轉容量率都是發生在下午二時的第一尖峰,每天燈號以下午二時的備轉容量率為準沒錯。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但近兩年太陽光電裝置容量大增,下午二時陽光方熾,備轉容量率都很高。每日最低備轉容量率發生在太陽下山後傍晚七時的第二尖峰,當日燈號當然應以七時的備轉容量率為準。但台電每天依舊公布下午二時的燈號,這就是為何去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">4/26</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">明明是紅燈但台電公布黃燈的原因。粉飾太平的後果是稍有電力知識的民眾已完全不相信台電公布的燈號。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台電隱瞞缺電的手段很多,一般民眾也搞不清楚,比方電力不足時降頻或降壓。經濟部在立法院說</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2021</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年備轉容量率只有兩天低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">6%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,但立即被立法委員吳怡玎打臉,吳委員指出當年台電降壓</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">90</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">多次,而依據台電「電源不足時期限制用電辦法」,當備轉容量率低於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">6%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,才能視情況啓動「降壓運轉」,經濟部當場啞口無言。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">當然所謂需求面管理也是隱瞞缺電的好招數,去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">7/22</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">用電創下</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">4075</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩新高時,但需求面管理幫忙抑低了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">115</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">3%</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">)電力需求,其中也有貓膩。今年某日供電緊張,台電臨時祭出「需量競價」,以每度</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">10</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元高價購電,壓低用電需求。但次日媒體詢問時,經濟部雲淡風輕的說「需量反應」手段各國電力公司都經常採用。經濟部故意將「需量反應」中前一天以每度</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">3</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元購電與當日因缺電而緊急以「需量競價」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">10</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">元購電混為一談,這不是混淆視聽是什麼?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">其實真正可怕的是「電力供需報告」造假。與去年相較,今天供電情勢更為嚴峻。去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">12</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月大林</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">5</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">50</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩)役役,大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">7</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機之氣渦輪機停機(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">60</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩),今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">3</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月核二</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">98</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩)除役,今年夏日台電傳統機組供電能力比去年降低了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">208</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但依經濟部去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">7</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月公布之</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">110</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年度電力供需報告,大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">8</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">112</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩)將於去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">9</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月商轉,大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">9</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">112</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩)將於今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">4</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月商轉,供電能力增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">224</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩,勉強補上減少的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">208</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬瓩。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但時至今日,不用說大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">9</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機,連大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">8</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機都尚未商轉。今年供電情勢之險惡不言可喻。但可怕之處在於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">110</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年度報告乃於去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">7</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月出版,明明知道大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">8</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機至少要</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">1</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年後方可商轉,為何在報告中仍然明列大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">8</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機將於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">2</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">個月後的去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">9</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月商轉?公然造假的唯一目的就是隱瞞缺電,但後果是大家對經濟部完全失去信任。值得嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">展望明年,上月公布的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">111</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年度「電力供需報告」又畫了一個大餅。報告中顯示除了今年商轉的大潭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">8</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">號機外,有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">4</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">部大型機組將在明年夏季尖峰前及時完工商轉。但問題是經濟部去年「電源開發計劃」因造假而完全跳票,民眾對今年「電力供需報告」畫的大餅有多少信心呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">其實缺不缺電是一回事,真正可怕的是過去幾年蔡政府以各種手段隱暪缺電,使民眾對政府、經濟部完全失去信心。建立信心十分不易,恢復信心更為困難,政府為了隱暪根本無法遮掩的缺電事實,賠上本身信譽,個人深感不值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台積電劉董事長說「我們只能相信他」,不知透露了多少無奈。護國神山董事長對政府的供電保証這麼沒有信心,只能以幽默口氣一語帶過,不也正彰顯了全民對政府的不信任?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "新細明體",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">民無信不立。蔡政府多年來隱瞞缺電劣績班班,因而賠上整個政府的信譽,影響極為深遠。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Roboto;"><br />
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<!--[endif]--></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>陳立誠http://www.blogger.com/profile/01663318050167672690noreply@blogger.com0